Derfor hedder det klimaændring fremfor global opvarmning
Et lille ripoff af en pointe fra en læser (Smokey, ja det kalder han sig) af Watts Up With That. En blogartikel fra Time meddeler at pingvinerne dør af den globale opvarmning, der lokalt er meget værre
The world’s polar regions are warming up faster than the global average, but the western edge of the Antarctic Peninsula is especially steamy. Over the past 50 years, winter temperatures have shot up by an almost unbelievable 6°C—more than five times the global average, according to a paper just published in Science.
The new study, part of a special report on oceans and climate, focuses on the Antarctic Peninsula not only because it represents an extreme, but because it gives scientists a chance to look at a marine ecosystem under rapid climate change (the other polar hotspots, in Siberia and western North America, are well inland).
Rapidly rising temperatures—mostly driven by warmer ocean currents–have transformed the West Antarctic Peninsula’s landscape. The massive ice shelves that sit just offshore at the peninsula’s southern end have begun collapsing en masse . Overall, say the authors, 87% of the region’s glaciers are in retreat, the ice season has shortened by 90 days and, they write ominously, “These changes are accelerating.”
That being the case, it’s not surprising that the creatures who live here are under enormous stress. Adélie penguin populations, which need ice and cold weather to survive, have plummeted by 90% in the northern part of the peninsula over the past three decades, says lead author Oscar Schofield, a marine scientist at Rutgers University, while chinstrap penguins, which prefer more temperate climates, have increased. “The penguin populations near Palmer Station [the largest U.S. base in that part of the continent] have flipflopped,” says Schofield. “The area will probably be completely devoid of Adélies in five or ten years.”
Men som Smokey gør opmærksom på er det ikke så let at pege på trends, som man måske kunne foranlediges til at tro med hensyn til den globale opvarmning og Antarktis.
Opvarmningen er, som det fremgår i artiklen trods den oppiskede stemning ganske lokal. Som andre læsere henviser til kan opvarmningen skyldes underjordisk vulkansk aktivitet og de dårlige forhold for pingviner kan skyldes overfiskeri. Men nyder pingviner virkelig kulden så meget, som man vil have os til at tro? Fra Digital Journal
Nearly 500 rare African penguins have died in the past 24 hours as a result of extremely cold weather in South Africa’s Eastern Cape province.
Det er en svær en at gøre alle tilfredse. Men et eksempel på, hvorfor man kalder det klimaændring. Der er altid en historie.
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Hvad Jordens middeltemperatur angår, siger kloge folk, som tør svømme mod strømmen for at nå til kilden, at der slet ikke er tale om signifikante forandringer i den globale temperatur og heller ikke i mange år har været det. Hvorfor ikke?
Om så var? - Et argument for middeltemperaturens forventelige, (men trods alt ikke særligt alarmerende udsving om et balancepunkt), er mig bekendt slet ikke fremført. Man kunne lidt snusfornuftigt påstå, at enhver afsmeltning af iskalotterne ved polerne på grund af opvarmning ville absorbere varmen for at gøre is kan blive til vand, men smeltevandet er koldere end andet vand med en afkøling af omgivelserne til følge, en proces som langt hen modsvarer og fordeler den opvarmning, der får isen til at smelte. Varmen er altså den mængde, der skal til for at smelte isen, men ikke nødvendigvis nok til at hæve temperaturen globalt. Hvis temperaturen skulle stige alligevel, ville afsmeltningen blot accellerere indtil temperauren igen fandt tilbage til sit balancepunkt
Så længe der altså er is nok, som kan smelte, kan man vel argumentere for, at den globale temperatur vil være relativt uforandret. Og videre kan man fortsætte tanken og påstå, at temperaturen først kan løbe løbsk, når al is er smeltet, og isen som naturlig bremse er væk.
Er min snusfornuft mon helt utilstrækkelig som rettesnor?
Med venlig hilsen
Ja, der er mange teorier, der understreger, hvor regionalt klimaet egentligt er. Logisk holder dit scenarie i hvert fald for mig at at se. Et andet der har været fremført er at med den globale opvarmning vil man se mere fordampning og følgelig mere nedbør. Hvis der falder mere nedbør over f.eks. Antarktis vil det forøge mængden af is. Hvilket vil sige at havspejlet vil falde.
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