Klimaeksperternes økonomiske sans

Diverse — Drokles on March 7, 2012 at 3:18 am

I et svar til 16 videnskabsmænds bekymring over klimaforskningens elendige forfatning skriver klimaforskeren Kevin Trentberth og 37 andre i Wall Street Journal hvorfor man fortsat skal stole på deres forudsigelser uagtet hvordan naturen ter sig

Do you consult your dentist about your heart condition? In science, as in any area, reputations are based on knowledge and expertise in a field and on published, peer-reviewed work. If you need surgery, you want a highly experienced expert in the field who has done a large number of the proposed operations.

Eksperter er eksperter på deres felt og eksperter udenfor dette felt ved ikke nok lyder argumentet i al sin enkelhed. At klima ikke er andet en anvendt fysik og at videnskabelige regler skal overholdes uanset, hvilket felt man har kastet sin kærlighed på vil jeg ikke dvæle ved - og heller ikke et ord om doktor Jørgen Ege. Men med ekspertdokter analogien in mente kan jeg ikke lade være at studse over Trentberth og 37 andres afsluttende udsagn

In addition, there is very clear evidence that investing in the transition to a low-carbon economy will not only allow the world to avoid the worst risks of climate change, but could also drive decades of economic growth. Just what the doctor ordered.

Så doktoren er nu blevet økonom. Men jeg ville nu ikke konsultere ham om investeringer, hvis man skal tro Matt Ridley i The Spectator

To the nearest whole number, the percentage of the world’s energy that comes from wind turbines today is: zero. Despite the regressive subsidy (pushing pensioners into fuel poverty while improving the wine cellars of grand estates), despite tearing rural communities apart, killing jobs, despoiling views, erecting pylons, felling forests, killing bats and eagles, causing industrial accidents, clogging motorways, polluting lakes in Inner Mongolia with the toxic and radioactive tailings from refining neodymium, a ton of which is in the average turbine — despite all this, the total energy generated each day by wind has yet to reach half a per cent worldwide.  

If wind power was going to work, it would have done so by now. The people of Britain see this quite clearly, though politicians are often wilfully deaf. The good news though is that if you look closely, you can see David Cameron’s government coming to its senses about the whole fiasco. The biggest investors in offshore wind — Mitsubishi, Gamesa and Siemens — are starting to worry that the government’s heart is not in wind energy any more. Vestas, which has plans for a factory in Kent, wants reassurance from the Prime Minister that there is the political will to put up turbines before it builds its factory.

This forces a decision from Cameron — will he reassure the turbine magnates that he plans to keep subsidising wind energy, or will he retreat? The political wind has certainly changed direction. George Osborne is dead set against wind farms, because it has become all too clear to him how much they cost. The Chancellor’s team quietly encouraged MPs to sign a letter to No. 10 a few weeks ago saying that ‘in these financially straitened times, we think it is unwise to make consumers pay, through taxpayer subsidy, for inefficient and intermittent energy production that typifies onshore wind turbines’.

Putting the things offshore may avoid objections from the neighbours, but (Chancellor, beware!) it makes even less sense, because it costs you and me — the taxpayers — double. I have it on good authority from a marine engineer that keeping wind turbines upright in the gravel, tides and storms of the North Sea for 25 years is a near hopeless quest, so the repair bill is going to be horrific and the output disappointing. Already the grouting in the foundations of hundreds of turbines off Kent, Denmark and the Dogger Bank has failed, necessitating costly repairs.

Bob Dylan tog altså fejl; svaret blæser ikke i vinden.

3 Kommentarer »

  1. Dylan var ikke så bogstavelig.

    Comment by Peter Buch — March 9, 2012 @ 8:01 am
  2. Det er rigtigt hr. Buch og det var kun ment som en komisk afslutning, som skulle spille på hippiegenerationens åndelige univers.

    Comment by Drokles — March 9, 2012 @ 9:56 am
  3. Fint nok!

    Comment by Peter Buch — March 10, 2012 @ 11:33 am

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