Rettidig omhu

Diverse — Drokles on February 4, 2012 at 1:04 pm

I Politiken kan man læse

1,2 meter. Så meget risikerer havet at stige ved de danske kyster som følge af klimaforandringerne.

Derfor introducerer miljøminister Ida Auken (SF) et nyt værktøj - et interaktivt kort - som advarer præcist om, hvor i landet vandet vil trænge ind.

For at se konsekvenserne af den stigende vandstand, hyppigere skybrud og ekstremt vejr i sit eget lokalområde, kan man klikke ind på, indtaste sit postnummer og zoome ind på det nye kort.

Og det er godt at være på forkant med udviklingen. Hvis altså der er en udvikling, som man kommer lidt i tvivl om, hvis man læser Quadrant Onlin

Tuvalu and the Maldives are two tiny low-lying states making a big splash on the global warming scene. Journos love to label them the ‘canaries in the coal mine’ because when (or if) global warming does its thing, these states will be the first to be washed out. Both countries have been poster children for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and their delegates are prized fixtures at any IPCC conference, “as a symbol of all threatened small island environments”, as the fourth IPCC report put it.


Next, Tuvalu continually claims rising seas are doing bad things to it. It so happens that someone found 27 aerial photos of Tuvalu and nearby Kiribati from 60 years ago, and these can be compared with modern satellite photos. Big surprise, the Tuvalu island chain has increased in area, with seven islands growing, including one that has grown by 30%. (The most populous Tuvalu island was not included). Overall, 23 of the total 27 islands were stable or growing, and only four, mostly uninhabited, were shrinking. The study’s co-author, Professor Paul Kench of Auckland University, said the physical basis of the island chains looked OK for the next 100 years, because of the way that coral debris piled up on them and grew there.

Andrew Bolt udtrykker sig bedre end jeg, når han i Daily Telegraph skriver

LET’S take stock of the great global warming scare and see how it’s panning out.

First, the planet hasn’t actually warmed for a decade - or even 15 years - according to new temperature data released by Britain’s Met Office.

Hmm. That’s not what global warming scientists predicted.

Look out of your window. The rain that Climate Commissioner Tim Flannery said in 2007 “isn’t actually going to fill our dams and river systems” any more has just flooded NSW and Queensland yet again.

The Bureau of Meteorology - which three years ago warned “we are just not going to have that sort of good rain again” - now admits last year was our third wettest on record.

The snowfalls that the University of East Anglia in 2000 said would soon become “a very rare and exciting event” are falling as hard as ever.

The monster hurricanes we were told to expect by Nobel Prize winner Al Gore are coming no more often.

The massive coral bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef that warmist Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg predicted would occur every second year from 2010 has not been seen in years.

Wherever you look it’s the same wake-up-to-yourself story. Sea levels have recently dipped, the oceans have lately cooled, Arctic ice has not retreated since 2007, polar bears are increasing in numbers, global crop yields keep rising and now some solar scientists warn not of global warming, but cooling — a far deadlier threat.

So what was that warming scare all about?

Den er værd at læse i sin helhed.

2 Kommentarer »

  1. Den der med at havspejlet stiger er en gang fup og fidus, der hypes af miljøminister Ida Auken, fordi man med den trussel kan tvinge kommunerne til store milliardudgifter til at “klima-forberede” kloakker og vandafledningssystemer.

    Jeg garanterer for, at de strande hvor jeg tumlede mig i leg for 3/4 århundrede siden og de havnekajer, hvorfra vi pilkede torsk og “Køwenhavnere” ser nøjagtig ud i dag, som de så ud den gang. Den begyndede havstigning er ikke at se nogensteds, og hvis mig et sted, hvor den er.

    I øvrigt er det ikke en måned siden, at statsgeolog ved Geus, Jens Morten Hansen, der også er adjungeret professor ved Københavns Universitet, offenliggjorde en rapport hvori han påviste, at den igangværende landhævning vil være større end en eventuell havstigning, skulle den virkelig materalisere sig.

    Så hvad skal det egentlig til for, hvis ikke den bagved liggende dagsorden er politisk.

    Comment by Per Brøns — February 4, 2012 @ 11:41 pm
  2. Som Bob Carter skriver

    The meeting was prompted by strong public discontent with Lake Macquarie City Council’s new coastal planning regulations designed to accommodate a science-fiction prediction of a 91cm rise in sea level in the district by 2100. This prediction comes from the NSW government, which in turn sourced it from a UN political body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. As with its unnecessarily alarmist projections of global warming, the IPCC’s estimate of future sea-level rise derives from speculative computer models.

    Where, then, should the government get its advice about sea-level change instead?

    Prior to the advent of global warming alarmism in the late 20th century, governments and councils drew their advice from statutory authorities involved with harbour and tidal management, and from scientific research groups such as the CSIRO.

    With the IPCC’s formation in 1988, which was tasked to ponder on global warming, the focus of governments shifted from sea-level change as a ports, harbours and beaches issue to it being seen as a more general environmental issue related to hypothetical, human-caused global warming.

    At about the same time, attention shifted from basing public policy on the use of measured tide gauge records to basing it on the theoretical projections of computer models. By the end of the 1990s, Australian governments and councils were basing their sea-level planning almost entirely on IPCC advice, that is, on unvalidated computer predictions that are in no way tied to accurate local sea-level measurement.

    The CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology, at official level, have consistently supported the IPCC sea-level projections as valid and accurate, as indeed has the government-appointed Coasts and Climate Change Council. To make matters worse, the IPCC sea-level predictions are for an entirely notional statistic, global average sea-level.

    Astonishingly, the predictions have been adopted uncritically as the basis for local planning. This is equivalent to introducing new housing regulations for the heating and cooling of Australian dwellings based upon global average temperature. Well, now that we have learned about the unsuitable nature of its sea-level speculations, what else do we know about the IPCC? Does it have form?

    My word it does. As long ago as 1996 a former president of the US National Academy of Sciences, Frederick Seitz, commented on its second assessment report on global warming that “I have never witnessed a more disturbing corruption of the peer-review process than the events that led to this IPCC report”.

    Subsequently, successive scandals have engulfed the IPCC, and destroyed the credibility of its claimed “gold standard” of science summary and peer-review.

    These scandals are well described in several easily accessible publications, and include such things as statistical chicanery related to the global temperature “hockey stick” (a faulty analysis of ancient tree ring measurements used to reconstruct global temperatures), a biased and dysfunctional peer-review process, the Climategate affair (leaked emails from Britain’s Climatic Research Unit that contained abundant evidence of scientific malfeasance by leading IPCC scientists), the Glaciergate affair (inaccurate anecdotal evidence about Himalayan glacier melt in an IPCC report) and the infiltration of IPCC advisory panels and authors by environmental activists and partisan researchers.

    Public reaction to these scandals has included calls for the IPCC be disbanded or that its chairman, Rajendra Pachauri resign, with former German chancellor Helmut Schmidt even recommending an IPCC audit be undertaken because “some of their researchers have shown themselves to be fraudsters (betrueger)”. In such circumstances, that Australian governments still use IPCC advice about sea-level change as their guide for coastal planning is hard to understand, when site-specific measurements of actual Australian change are readily available.

    Well-qualified independent scientists have repeatedly drawn public attention to the existence of a body of official agency sea-level measurements (now maintained by the BOM), and peer-reviewed research papers based on these and other empirical data, which demonstrates conclusively the four following facts.

    First, that rates of sea-level change vary around the Australian coast. This means any new coastal planning regulations (if and where they are needed) should be based on the appropriate local sea-level measurements rather than a hypothetical global average.

    Second, the longest east coast tide-gauge record, from Fort Denison (Sydney), records an average rate of rise over the past 100 years of about 1mm a year (10cm a century).

    Third, that other tide gauges, scattered around Australia as part of the national tidal network, mostly record rates of long-term rise between about 0.5mm and 2.5mm a year with no change in behaviour in the late 20th century that might reflect a human (global warming) influence.

    And, fourth, that the Sydney tide gauge, as well as other long tidal records from nearby (Fremantle, Auckland) and overseas, exhibits a slowing rate of sea-level rise over the past 40 years.

    All of which leads directly to the three following money questions. Why do Australian governments still draw their advice about sea-level change from the IPCC, a discredited international political agency that is now known to flout conventional scientific and peer-review procedures in favour of promulgating environmental activism?

    Why have governments adopted the irrational policy of basing Australian sea-level planning on theoretical computer-generated projections of global sea-level change?

    Last, why do Australian authorities ignore the solid base of empirical measurements, and the more than 100 years of peer-reviewed local and international research, that contradicts completely the alarmist views of the IPCC; and that also provides the accurate, site-specific records of local sea-level change that are the necessary basis for achieving sensible coastal policies in Australia?

    The good folk who live around Lake Macquarie, and doubtless tens of thousands of other coastal residents upon whom new planning regulations are now impinging, deserve an explanation; and it needs to be a good one.

    Comment by Drokles — February 8, 2012 @ 7:45 am

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