Når heste er forskræmte og mangler tillid til mennesker ringer man til Robert Redford. Og ved udsigten til vesterlændinges uro over udviklingen i Ægypten ringer man til ElBaradei. Det har Der Spiegel gjort og her hviskede Ægyptens nye stærke mand om sin tro på et arabisk forår

SPIEGEL: Do you see any parallels between the toppling of the regimes in Central and Eastern Europe in 1989 and the ongoing popular uprisings in the Arab world?

ElBaradei: Absolutely. Both are major, historic breaks. What’s currently playing out in the Arab world — from Tunisia all the way to Yemen — resembles a wildfire. I have no doubt that the transition in Egypt will be accompanied by a transition in the entire Middle East. We could experience an Arab Spring …

SPIEGEL: … which hopefully won’t end as tragically as the Prague Spring of 1968, when Warsaw Pact troops violently suppressed political liberalization in Czechoslovakia. The Israelis seem more worried than anyone.

ElBaradei: There are a few myths that Mubarak has successfully disseminated in the West and in Israel. First, that if he falls, there will be immediate chaos. Second, that if Egypt transitions into a democracy, the peace treaty with Israel will be annulled and we will be on the verge of entering into a new war in the Middle East. And, third, that if there is a transformation, an ayatollah à la Iran will take over in Cairo. All of that is nonsense.

SPIEGEL: Does that mean you can’t sympathize with people’s nervousness about Egyptian Islamists?

ElBaradei: I don’t think like the Muslim Brotherhood, and I don’t share their conservative religious ideology. Incidentally, they are not a majority; instead they have the potential to win about 20 percent of the Egyptian vote. Nor do they have ties with al-Qaida. They have sworn off violence and agreed to play by democratic rules.

SPIEGEL: Are you now saying that a government that included participation by the Muslim Brotherhood would continue on with Mubarak’s policies toward Israel?

ElBaradei: No. Something the Israelis also need to grasp is that it’s impossible to make peace with a single man. At the moment, they have a peace treaty with Mubarak, but not one with the Egyptian people. The Israelis should understand that it is in their long-term interest to have a democratic Egypt as a neighbor, and that it is prudent to acknowledge the legitimate interests of the Palestinians and to grant them their own state.”

Som en god og lavstammet ven pointerede

Bemærk, at han først kalder det en myte at Egypten vil annullere fredstraktaten med Israel, hvis Mubarak styrtes. Kort efter siger han, at Israel ikke HAR nogen fredstraktat med Egypten, kun med Mubarak.

Det vil selvfølgelig komme som noget af en overraskelse for folk der faktisk ved noget om fredstraktaten, da den er underskrevet af Mubaraks forgænger, Sadat, ikke af Mubarak. Den var faktisk grunden til, at Sadat blev myrdet.

Og mht til Broderskabet kunne man jo spørge, hvad der sker, hvis de skulle få 30,2 % af stemmerne.