Intet klimabackdraft

Diverse — Drokles on January 17, 2011 at 4:21 am

Vi går mod en koldere tid. De fleste klimaforskere og det selv ind i FNs Klimapanels rækker forventer at det vil vare ved indtil 2030-2040. Derefter vender opvarmingen så tilbage. Det går op og ned. Men for at naturen kan nå at indhente FNs Klimapanels målsætning om en temperaturstigning på 3-5C  er det højst ubelejlige ophold i den globale opvarmning vi blevet advaret om vil den efterfølgende opvamning vil blive så meget desto hurtigere.

Forklaringen skal findes i oceanerne, der via deres enorme legeme kan “lagre” både kulde og varme og pludselig afgive dette til den intetanende atmosfære. I øjeblikket har CO2 koncentrationen tilsyneladende travlt med at stoppe varme ned forbi atmosfæren og godt ned i oceanerne så vi altså om få ti-år aldrig mere skal opleve en hvid jul og Afrika vil blive som en ovn. Det ved man fordi man har målt lidt mere stråling ind på Jorden end ud og dette ubalancerede energiregnskab skal altså omsættes i den varme, som vi ikke oplever. Det er dette, der er blevet omtalt som “the missing heat”. Men desværre har de seneste målinger ikke kunnet finde denne manglende varme, der blot ligger og venter på os. Fra International Journal of Geosciences (set via Dr. Judith Currys blog Climate etc)

A recently published estimate of Earth’s global warming trend is 0.63 ± 0.28 W/m2, as calculated from ocean heat content anomaly data spanning 1993-2008. This value is not representative of the recent (2003-2008) warming/cooling rate because of a “flattening” that occurred around 2001-2002. Using only 2003-2008 data from Argo floats, we find by four different algorithms that the recent trend ranges from –0.010 to –0.161 W/m2 with a typical error bar of ±0.2 W/m2. These results fail to support the existence of a frequently-cited large positive computed radiative imbalance.

(…)

As many authors have noted, knowing FOHC is important because of its close relationship to FTOA, the net inward radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere. Wetherald et al. [13] and Hansen et al. [14] believe that this radiative imbalance in Earth’s climate system is positive, amount-ing recently [14] to approximately 0.9 W/m2. Pielke [15] has pointed out that at least 90% of the variable heat content of Earth resides in the upper ocean. Thus, to a good approximation, FOHC may be employed to infer the magnitude of FTOA, and the positive radiation imbalance should be directly reflected in FOHC (when adjusted for geothermal flux [9]; see Table 1 caption). The principal approximations involved in using this equality, which include the neglect of heat transfers to land masses and those associated with the melting and freezing of ice, estimated to be of the order of 0.04 W/m2 [14], have been discussed by the present authors [9].

In steady state, FOHC should be zero and FTOA should be nearly zero, having a small negative value to balance the geothermal flux. If FTOA > FOHC, “missing energy” is being produced if no sink other than the ocean can be identified. We note that one recent deep-ocean analysis [16], based on a variety of time periods generally in the 1990s and 2000s, suggests that the deeper ocean contrib-utes on the order of 0.09 W/m2. This is not sufficient to explain the discrepancy.

Trenberth and Fasullo (TF) [2] believe that missing energy has been accumulating at a considerable rate since 2005. According to their rough graph, as of 2010 the missing energy production rate is about 1.0 W/m2, which represents the difference between FTOA ~ 1.4 and FOHC ~ 0.4 W/m2. It is clear that the TF missing-energy problem is made much more severe if FOHC is negative or even zero. In our opinion, the missing energy problem is probably caused by a serious overestimate by TF of FTOA, which, they state, is most accurately determined by mod-eling.

In summary, we find that estimates of the recent (2003-2008) OHC rates of change are preponderantly negative. This does not support the existence of either a large positive radiative imbalance or a “missing en-ergy.”

Med andre ord så er der koldt, hvis der er koldt.

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