Kulde og varme

Diverse — Drokles on December 19, 2010 at 5:43 am

Fra Sky Sports

Chelsea’s much-anticipated clash against Manchester United became the most notable Premier League casualty to be hit by heavy snow this weekend.

The game, scheduled for Sunday afternoon, was called off due to safety reasons as the treacherous conditions continued to decimate the majority of the weekend’s fixtures.

Games at Arsenal, Liverpool, Wigan and Birmingham had already been called off earlier on Saturday, leaving Sunderland versus Bolton and Blackburn versus West Ham as the day’s only surviving matches in the top flight.

Sunday’s game between Blackpool and Tottenham was also called off, as was the Black Country derby between West Brom and Wolves.

Og TV6 viste i stedet for Premier League den meget slappe Grumpier Old Men, der er en fortsættelse af den meget slappe Grumpy Old Men. Sørgeligt for fodboldfans og sørgeligt for Walter Matthaus og Jack Lemons eftermæle. Sådan er klimaforstyrrelser i al deres gru. La Dolche Vita er også blevet en kold fornøjelse. Men nu skal man ikke blande vejr og klima sammen, som Jyllands-Posten minder os om

Lægger man novemberopgørelsen sammen med de gennemsnitstemperaturerne for de foregående ti måneder, så vil 2010 efter alt at dømme skrive sig ind i historiebøgerne som det varmeste år, siden man for 150 år siden begyndte at måle temperaturerne på verdensplan.

Det overgår dermed 2005, 1998 og 2003, der i dag ligger i toppen samlet set.

Forskellen er dog, at 2010 har været påvirket af den såkaldte La Niña-effekt, der har medført, at Stillehavet har været langt koldere end normalt.

Det skal måske for en god ordens skyld med at ligheden med de andre varme år er at de også mestenddels har været præget af den varme El Nino. Vejr og klima er ikke det samme, det er klimaet der danner rammen for vejret. For 11 år siden forudså de kloges computermodeller på basis af NASA data nemlig hvorledes klimaet ville påvirke vejret. Science Daily (Set via Steven Goddard)

A team of scientists from Columbia University has shown that warm winters in the northern hemisphere likely can be explained by the action of upper-atmosphere winds that are closely linked to global warming.

Global mean surface temperatures have increased in the range of 0.6 to 1.2°F since the late 19th century. But far more severe warming has taken place over wide regions of northern Eurasia, Canada and Alaska, with temperatures averaging 7 to 10°F warmer in the last 35 years, according to data previously compiled by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City.

The research, which appears in the June 3 issue of the British journal Nature, offers no predictions on what temperatures future winters will bring, but suggests a continuation of the current trend for three to four more decades.

Ak ja det var konsensus dengang. Det er slemt nok i sig selv at vejret ikke gør, som der bliver sagt, men det værste ved vejrets uforskammede opførsel er at det leder til en stigning i uforskammet tænkning. Som her fra Icecap

A number of published papers and openly avail-able data on sea level changes, glacier retreat, freezing/break-up dates of rivers, sea ice retreat, tree-ring observations, ice cores and changes of the cosmic-ray intensity, from the year 1000 to the present, are studied to examine how the Earth has recovered from the Little Ice Age (LIA). We learn that the recovery from the LIA has proceeded continuously, roughly in a linear manner, from 1800-1850 to the present.

The rate of the recovery in terms of temperature is about 0.5C/100 years and thus it has important im-plications for understanding the present global warming. It is suggested, on the basis of a much longer period data, that the Earth is still in the process of recovery from the LIA; there is no sign to indicate the end of the recovery before 1900. Cosmic-ray intensity data show that solar activity was related to both the LIA and its recovery.

The multi-decadal oscillation of a period of 50 to 60 years was superposed on the linear change; it peaked in 1940 and 2000, causing the halting of warming temporarily after 2000. These changes are natural changes, and in order to determine the contribution of the manmade greenhouse effect, there is an urgent need to identify them correctly and accurately and remove them from the present global warm-ing/cooling trend.

In Section 3, we suggested that the prominent ‘fluc-tuations’ superposed on the linear recovery are the multi-decadal oscillation. Figure 4(d) shows its rate of changes. From Figures 4(c) and 4(d), the multi-decadal oscillation peaked in 1940, and the temperature actually decreased from the level of the linear increase from 1940 to 1975 and then increased after 1975 to 2000.

Thus, it may be speculated that the situation in 2000 is similar to that in 1940, so that it is predicted that the temperature change will be flat or in a slightly declining trend during the next 30 years or so (see Section 6 and Figure 9). That is to say, the halting does not mean the end of the recov-ery from the LIA. The halting after 2000 can be ob-served in sea level change (Nerem et al), a decrease of the heat content of the oceans (Pielke, Sr.) and other factors.

Selvfølgelig gør klimaet intet på egen hånd. Det reagerer, som alt andet kun på Vestens provokationer. Ellers kunne følgende fra The Global Warming Policy Foundation være en mulighed

Everybody is talking about global warming - but in Germany and also in many other countries around the world people are currently fighting with the adversities of extreme cold. And indeed: “The year 2010 will be the coldest for ten years in Germany,” said Thomas Globig from the weather service Meteo Media talking to wetter.info . And it might even get worse: “It is quite possible that we are at the beginning of a Little Ice Age,” the meteorologist said. Even the Arctic ice could spread further to the south.

It is already clear: the average temperatures in Germany this year (8.1 degrees Celsius) were 0.2 degrees below the long term measured average of 8.3 degrees. “I fear we will end up still significantly lower by the end of the year”, said Globig. The long-term average is actually the average of all German stations from 1961 to 1990.

Coldest December in 100 years

In Berlin, there was an absolute cold record in early December, “For 100 years it had not been as cold as in the first decade of December,” said Globig. This also applied to other regions. But why is it so cold just now? Might it have anything to do with climate change? “I’m very sceptical”, replied Globig. A few years ago when we had a period of mild winters many climate scientists warned that winter sport in Germany’s low mountain ranges would soon no longer be possible anymore because of  global warming. “Now they are saying: the cold winters are a consequence of global warming - a questionable implication,” according to Globig

Selvfølgelig er det helt ude i hampen.

1 Kommentar »

  1. Noget af en nyhed her:

    NASA siger nu, at vi er på vej mod en ny istid. De har ikke dateret deres artikel. Sådan er det med videnskabeligheden i de kredse:

    http://science.nasa.gov/earth-science/big-questions/what-are-the-primary-causes-of-the-earth-system-variability/

    Comment by Universalgeni — December 21, 2010 @ 3:17 pm

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