Mens vi venter på FNs klimarapport

Diverse — Drokles on November 21, 2011 at 3:41 pm

I en kronik i Jyllands-Posten fra 2010 konkluderede Carsten Bjerg, koncernchef for Grundfos og Sebastian H. Mernild, klima- og polarforsker, Los Alamos National Laboratory USA at

Klimaforandringer har altid fundet sted, men klodens førende klimaforskere er ikke i tvivl: Det fortsat varmere klima er betinget af menneskenes enorme forbrug af klodens fossile brændsler, der medvirker til en fortsat stigende udledning af drivhusgasser til atmosfæren.

Dette er konklusioner, der blev dokumenteret i den seneste klimarapport fra FN’s klimapanel, IPCC, tilbage i 2007, og de vil med sikkerhed vil blive yderligere cementeret i den kommende klimarapport fra FN, som bliver offentliggjort i 2013.

Det er selvfølgelig svært at spå, men hvis vi forudsætter at det globale klima fortsætter sin nuværende stime med manglende opvarmning bliver den næste rapport fra FNs Klimapanel IPCC ganske rigtigt interessant læsning. FN-rapport for FN-rapport rykker klimaets undergang stadigt nærmere, tiden rinder ud med stigende hastighed og løsningerne bliver stadigt mere drakoniske. Men hvis klimaet stadigt ikke arter sig inden 2013 vil en fortsættelse af den ulveråbende linie virke en anelse virkelighedsfjern. På den anden side vil en afdæmpet rapport også være en direkte indrømmelse af at den hidtidige skråsikkerhed og alarmisme uretmæssigt har haft hold i klimaforskningens “guldstandard”. Og så er konsensus definitivt afgået ved døden, som et brugbart argument - et konsensus kan ikke tage fejl. Ellers er det jo blot et massehysteri, som det kendes fra finansmarkeder. Og Klimapanelets legitimitet hviler alene i dets agressivt promoverede konsensus. På den baggrund anser Joanna Nova lækkede konklusioner fra en FN-rapport som en prøveballon. Fra The Australian

After a week of debate, the IPCC will tonight release a summary of the report in Kampala, Uganda, as a prelude to the year’s biggest climate change conference, being held in Durban, South Africa.

The full report will not be released for several months but a leaked copy of the draft summary, details of which have been published by the BBC and a French news agency, have provided a good indication of what it found.

While the human and financial toll of extreme weather events has certainly risen, the cause has been mostly due to increased human settlement rather than worse weather.

There is only “low confidence” that tropical cyclones have become more frequent, “limited to medium evidence available” to assess whether climatic factors have changed the frequency of floods, and “low confidence” on a global scale even on whether the frequency has risen or fallen.

According to the BBC, the draft report said while it was “likely” that anthropogenic influences were behind the changes in cold days and warm days, there was only “medium confidence” that they were behind changes in extreme rainfall events, and “low confidence” in attributing any changes in tropical cyclone activity to greenhouse gas emissions or anything else humanity had done.

The draft report says “uncertainty in the sign of projected changes in climate extremes over the coming two to three decades is relatively large because climate change signals are expected to be relatively small compared to natural climate variability”.

Jean Palutikof, director of the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility at Griffith University, in Queensland, said the findings of the UN report would “not surprise anyone involved in climate science”.

Professor Palutikof said it would take a while for the effects of climate change to become visible. But without action, she said, “gradually, over time, that signal will emerge with resounding clarity”.

“If we don’t do something now to prevent it, by the time we get to 2070, we will see the impact clearly,” she said.

Vi kan ikke skelne mellem det menneske skabte og det naturlige fordi det naturlige helt overdøver det menneskeskabte, men uanset hvad der sker så er vi stadigt inde i en alarmerende udvikling som kan vise sine første tegn så tidligt som 2070. Men allerede om 2 år går det løs - eller retter slår man sig løs, som Lorne Gunter fortæller på National Post.

This year, the site is the South African seaside city of Durban, one of Africa’s favourite tropical destinations.

For nearly two weeks, delegates to these gatherings drink fine wine and eat fine food, much of it flown in from thousands of miles away. At Bali in 2007, there was great concern among chefs that the waters around the Indonesian island could not produce enough jumbo shrimp to satisfy all the noshing attendees, so emergency orders were flown in from as far away as Australia and the vast shrimp farms of India.

Meanwhile, official jets idle on the tarmac producing more emissions than an ordinary Canadian would in a decade, all while delegates stand around predicting the end of the planet if something isn’t done to curb emissions. (Funny, for some reason no one at these meetings ever suggests an end to these meetings as a good place to start reducing emissions.)

These conferences always end the same way, too: With promises of more conferences and a toothless agreement that enables delegates to claim success.

Vi venter i sp;nding, hvad der står på menuen.

1 Kommentar »

  1. Vi venter også spændt på størelsen af den danske delegation, alt som kan krybe og gå fra den politiske elites venstrefløj skal med. Rejse og carbon offset betalt af den arbejdende del af befolkningen.

    Comment by Sailor — November 22, 2011 @ 3:56 am

RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

Kommentér indlægget...

Monokultur kører på WordPress