The art of cancelling the deal

Diverse — Drokles on May 9, 2018 at 3:47 am

National Review, der var det ideologiske arnested for #neverTrump, roser i deres leder præsident Trump for at trække USA ud af Iran aftalen - “to his great credit

The Iran deal is a travesty and a boon to the regime. In short, Iran entered into years-long negotiations with the West over whether it would have a nuclear program, during the course of which it developed a nuclear program. The deal allowed it to preserve a temporarily curtailed program in exchange for the shipment of $1.7 billion in cash to Iran — part of it clearly a ransom payment for the release of U.S. hostages — and relief from Western sanctions that had begun to bite.

For the mullahs, it was the deal of the century. It was less a nonproliferation agreement than a deal to pay for its proliferation.

The economic benefits of the accord were predictably poured into Iran’s expansion around the region. Rather than a new era of peace, the deal has coincided with more widespread conflict in the Middle East. Iran is now at the borders of Israel and Saudi Arabia via its own forces and proxies in Syria and Yemen. It has aided Bashar al-Assad’s destruction of his own country so he can continue to rule the hollowed-out remains. It continues its attempted takeover of Iraq. It supports terror groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and the Taliban. Wherever there is discord in the region, there are the Iranians, fueling the conflict and supporting the nastiest actors.

The Iran deal takes no account of this activity in exchange for what is, in the best case, a pause in the Iranian nuclear program. Since the West isn’t allowed to inspect military sites, it is entirely possible that Iran is flagrantly cheating on the deal. Even if it isn’t, the deal allows the Iranians to bide their time — mustering their economic strength, cementing commercial ties with Europe — until restrictions on its nuclear program begin to lapse in less than a decade.

The deal does nothing to check Iran’s missile program, indeed gives it more running room, even though it would be easier to verify a stoppage in missile activity than the nuclear program.

Det er den bekymrede ros. Den optimistiske kan man læse i Free Beacon, hvor Matthew Continetti skriver

By reimposing sanctions, President Trump will weaken an already ailing Iranian economy. The Iranian currency, the rial, has plummeted in recent weeks. Inflation is rampant. The financial system is corrupted, dysfunctional. Strikes are proliferating, and often turn into displays against the government. This is a situation the United States should seek not to mitigate but to exacerbate.

Removing ourselves from the deal puts Iran on the defensive. Its people and government are divided and uncertain how to respond. Its leverage is minimal. Iranian citizens have seen their leaders use the money from the deal not to improve the economic lot of the average person but to fund the military, IRGC, and other instruments of foreign adventurism. Implicit in the deal was recognition of the Islamic regime as a legitimate member of the so-called “international community.” President Trump has rescinded that recognition and the standing that came with it. The issue is no longer Iranian compliance with an agreement that contained loopholes through which you could launch a Fateh-110 heavy missile. The issue is whether Iran chooses to become a responsible player or not, whether it curbs its imperial designs, cuts off its militias, abandons terrorism, opens its public square, and ceases its threats to and harassment of the United States and her allies. That choice is not Donald Trump’s to make. It is the Iranian regime’s.

Obamas Iran politik var et fatamorgana mens “Trump opposes privileges therapy and dialogue over realism and hard decisions.” Obamas politik hvilede på hans dekreter, da han var mere villig til at forhandle med mullaherne end med republikanerne, skriver Continetti videre, og derfor trævles den let op. Og, som Andrew C McCarthy peger på, så underminerer netop dekreterne, to argumenter for at honorere Iran-aftalen

(…) Obama apologists posit two other objections to Trump’s cashiering of the former president’s legacy agreement: abandoning the deal (1) isolates the United States and (2) suggests that the United States cannot be trusted to keep its word.

What nonsense.

Far from isolating the United States, President Trump is proving that the United States is the indispensable nation. Nations will be put to a choice: You can have access to the U.S. economy or you can have commerce with Iran — not both. Our European allies know this is not a real choice: They can’t isolate us, they need us, our markets, and the umbrella of our protection. They’re angry because they’d like to pocket the benefits they get from us while cutting profitable deals with our enemies. That’s not “isolating us”; that’s a tantrum. They will get over it in short order if the president is steadfast about enforcement.

Moreover the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action] did not represent America’s word, it represented Obama’s word. Our Constitution and our laws are no secret. Our European allies know full well that a president has no power unilaterally to bind the United States to an international agreement. We give our word when we enter a treaty or enact legislation that cements commitments. Obama did not seek to make his deal a treaty precisely because he knew America was not giving its word — the public did not support the deal, which would have been roundly defeated if subjected to the Constitution’s process for ratifying international commitments.

Continetti funderer videre, at selv om Trump fører traditionel republikansk udenrigspolitik, skal man ikke regne med at andre kandidater, der ville være født ud af det politiske system, end outsideren Trump ville have haft modet til at gå imod “ the foreign policy establishment”.

Victor Davis Hanson legede for nogen tid siden med tanken om at Trump kan ende som den tragiske helt. Manden til tiden, som gennem sine grove metoder redder de civiliserede og efterfølgende udstødes fordi de civiliserede ikke kan indeholde hans grovheder. Det kan meget vel være og vi krydser fingre. Trump vil da være 78, i fantastisk fysisk form, milliardær og Nobelprismodtager.

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