Kul og olie er stadig verdens foretrukne energiform

Diverse — Drokles on July 2, 2017 at 6:00 am

Et af de besynderlige argumenter, der er blevet gentaget om Trumps annullering af Obamas forpligtelse på klimaaftalen i Paris lyder at Trump har sat USA på et sidespor eller endog sat udviklingen tilbage, mens resten af Verden skrinlægger de fossile brændstoffer og vil tjene kassen på alternative energiformer. Men det ser ikke sådan ud, skriver Bjørn Lomborg på sin Facebook profil

Today, solar and wind makes up just 0.6% of global energy. In a quarter century, in 2040 – even if everyone including Trump lives up to their Paris promises – solar and wind will produce less than 3% of global energy.

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USA, Kina og Indien, der står for 2/3 af Verdens kulforbrug, har øget deres afbrænding af kul med 6% i 2017, efter nogle år med nedgang. Det er “policy shifts in China, changes in U.S. energy markets and India’s continued push to provide electricity to more of its poor” der ligger bag denne udvikling, skriver Chicago Tribune. Så at “Indien vil gå ‘højere og længere’ i Parisaftalen om klimaforandringer” er en lidt tom udtalelse man kunne læse i bl.a Politiken.

I USA har det især været de rigelige forekomster af naturgas, der udvindes dygtigt ved ‘fracking’, der ellers har hæmmet kulforbruget. Og Kina, der ellers har lukket en del kulkraftværker, har ændret kurs på grund af en afmatning i økonomien(!). Ingen ved, hvorledes det vil fortsætte, men man regner med at Indien, hvor kul allerede udgør 70% af det samlede energiforbrug, vil fortsætte med at øge forbruget af kul i de kommende år.

China has committed to capping its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, and some have suggested it might accomplish that up to a decade earlier. Xizhou Zhou, a senior energy analyst with IHS Markit based in Beijing, said the recent uptick in coal production that the AP identified raises doubts about such optimism, but he added that China is still expected to meet its 2030 deadline.

Coal consumption will continue to increase, mainly driven by Asian countries,” Zhou said. “We’re seeing a recovery starting this year and an increase until the mid-2020s before you see coal plateau globally.”

Når Trump til hele Verdens forfærdelse, er fortaler for kul, handler det om at udvide udnyttelsen af USAs samlede energiressourcer - der er yuge. USA står foran at blive netto-energi eksportør og især i Indien er der efterspørgsel efter amerikansk naturgas, skriver Andrew Follett således i Daily Caller. Og Trump råder den 3. Verden til at fyre op med kul - hvilket er en bedre ide, end at fyre op med sol-paneler, hvilket er skik på de kanter.

Så hvor efterlader det  så sol og vind? Og Bjørn Lomborg Wall Street Journal skriver

Just 0.6% of the world’s energy needs are currently met by solar and wind, according to the International Energy Agency. Even with implementation of the Paris treaty, solar and wind are expected to contribute less than 3% of world energy by 2040. Fossil fuels will go from meeting 81% of our energy needs to three-quarters. The energy expert Vaclav Smil of the University of Manitoba puts it bluntly: “Claims of a rapid transition to a zero-carbon society are plain nonsense.”

Though there are contexts in which solar and wind energy are efficient, in most situations they depend on subsidies. These will cost $125 billion this year and $3 trillion over the next 25 years, to meet less than 3% of world energy needs. If solar and wind truly out-competed fossil fuels, the Paris treaty would be unnecessary.

Isaac Orr skriver i The Desmoines Register mere præcist om det urentable i vindenergi

Wind is also much more expensive than traditional forms of power, such as coal and natural gas, because of high construction and maintenance costs. Electricity generated from wind is 2.7 times more expensive than electricity produced at existing coal-fired power plants and greater than 3.1 times more expensive than existing natural-gas plants.

Further, claims suggesting wind power is somehow cost competitive with coal and natural gas are pure fantasy — unless one factors in the generous tax credits lavished on wind producers. The federal government grants wind producers federal tax credits of 2.4 cents per kilowatt hour (kWh), and the state of Iowa provides an additional 1.5 cents per kilowatt hour generated on wind farms. In total, the tax credits reaped are 3.9 cents/kWh. It is these tax credits, not the inherent economics of wind turbines, that stimulate growth.

You don’t have to take our word for it, either. Warren Buffett, the world-famous owner of Berkshire Hathaway and MidAmerican Energy, which owns the largest wind farms in Iowa, once candidly stated: “On wind energy, we get a tax credit if we build a lot of wind farms. That’s the only reason to build them. They don’t make sense without the tax credit.”

Og Matt Ridley forklarer, hvorfor vindenergi er så dyrt hos Rod Martin,

Wind turbines, apart from the fiberglass blades, are made mostly of steel, with concrete bases. They need about 200 times as much material per unit of capacity as a modern combined cycle gas turbine. Steel is made with coal, not just to provide the heat for smelting ore, but to supply the carbon in the alloy. Cement is also often made using coal. The machinery of ‘clean’ renewables is the output of the fossil fuel economy, and largely the coal economy.

A two-megawatt wind turbine weighs about 250 metric tons, including the tower, nacelle, rotor and blades. Globally, it takes about half a ton of coal to make a ton of steel. Add another 25 tons of coal for making the cement and you’re talking 150 metric tons of coal per turbine.

Now if we are to build 350,000 wind turbines a year (or a smaller number of bigger ones), just to keep up with increasing energy demand, that will require 50 million metric tons of coal a year more than being mined now. That’s about half the EU’s hard coal–mining output.

Og ikke nok med det, så er der et problem med vindenergi, som intet subsidie kan løse, nemlig plads, skriver Ridley videre

[W]orld energy demand has been growing at about 2 per cent a year for nearly 40 years. Between 2013 and 2014, again using International Energy Agency data, it grew by just under 2,000 terawatt-hours.

If wind turbines were to supply all of that growth but no more, how many would need to be built each year? The answer is nearly 350,000, since a two-megawatt turbine can produce about 0.005 terawatt-hours per annum. That’s one-and-a-half times as many as have been built in the world since governments started pouring taxpayer money into this so-called industry in the early 2000s.

At a density of, very roughly, 50 acres per megawatt, typical for wind farms, that many turbines would require a land area half the size of the British Isles, including Ireland (61,000 sq mi). Every year.

If we kept this up for 50 years, we would have covered every square mile of a land area half the size of Russia with wind farms (3.05 million sq mi).

Remember, this would be just to fulfill the new demand for energy, not to displace the vast existing supply of energy from fossil fuels, which currently supply 80 per cent of global energy needs.

Det er din elregning forklaret.

2 Kommentarer »

  1. “Indien, hvor kul allerede udgør 70% af det samlede energiforbrug, vil fortsætte med at øge forbruget af kul i de kommende år.” Ha ha, ja det er jo sandheden.

    Det er ikke så længe siden, at medierne gik amok af begejstring, da Indiens premierminister besøgte Macron og tog gas på hele verdenspressen med følgende bevingede ord: »Indien vil fortsætte med at arbejde højere og længere end Parisaftalen tilsiger….Den kan beskytte kommende generationer og give nyt håb«.

    Det har selvfølgelig intet med virkeligheden at gøre - tværtimod, da Indien massivt vil øge sit kulforbrug. Men da det kunne bruges til at bashe/nedgøre pariaen Trump, så skide være med virkeligheden.

    Comment by traveler — July 2, 2017 @ 9:10 am
  2. Godt husket Traveler, det må redigeres ind i teksten. Tak!

    Comment by Drokles — July 2, 2017 @ 9:57 am

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