Trumps ‘big stick’!

“Occasional perceived craziness is a plus in both poker and high-stakes geostrategic diplomacy” siger Victor Davis Hanson i en afklædning af Obama-doktrinen på National Review.

hold-on-israel

Det meste af pressen er bekymrede over Donald Trumps manglende politiske erfaring og hans påståede ukendskab til Verden udenfor amerikanske realityshows tegner en udenrigspolitik der vil krabbe ubehjælpsomt mod krig og kaos. I den virkelige store Verden er der ikke plads til store armbevægelser og spontane Twitterkommentarer. Hans forgænger, Verdensmanden med de mange oprindelser, som han ikke helt ville vide af alligevel, forstod den fine balance på den internationale scene. Trump er elefanten i glasbutikken og allerede i overgangen mellem de to regeringer skaber Trumps ‘kontraordrer’ da også problemer, skiver bl.a Wall Street Journal.

De tog også anstød af at Trump passer sin twitter-konto og sin takke-turne og kun sparsomt deltager i de sikkerhedspolitiske møder. “I don’t have to be told the same thing in the same words every single day for the next eight years” forklarede han Fox News sin ‘efter-behov’ tilgang.

Trump er ikke en mad-man, men han har en rem af huden - og der lyttes til Trump.  Af alt, hvad der kommer ud af munden på ham så ved man det er alvor når han trækker en rød streg. Alan Dershowitz skriver i Algemeiner at Trump havde ret i at blande sig i Obamas svigt af Israel, da FNs sikkerhedsråd besluttede at gøre bl.a Østjerusalem til palæstinensisk territorium

The effect, therefore of the Obama decision to push for, and abstain from, a vote on this resolution is to deliberately tie the hands of the president’s successors, in particular President-elect Trump. That is why Trump did the right thing in reaction to Obama’s provocation. Had the lame-duck president not tried to tie the incoming president’s hands, Trump would not have intervened at this time. But if Trump had not urged the Egyptians to withdraw the resolution, he would have made it far more difficult for himself to try to bring about a negotiated resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The reason for this is that a Security Council resolution declaring the 1967 border to be sacrosanct, and any building behind those boarders to be illegal, would make it impossible for Palestinian leaders to accept less in a negotiation. Moreover, the passage of such a resolution would disincentivize the Palestinians from accepting Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu’s invitation to sit down and negotiate with no preconditions. Any such negotiations would require painful sacrifices on both sides if a resolution were to be reached. And a Security Council resolution siding with the Palestinians would give the Palestinians the false hope that they could get a state through the United Nations without having to make painful sacrifices.

Det har han gjort siden valget til kommende præsident og med god effekt. Eric Fernstrohm, der har været rådgiver for Mitt Romney, skriver om Trumps ‘can-do’ tilgang i Boston Globe

Trump has turned out to be the most energetic president-elect America has seen in a long time, intervening to save jobs and contain federal spending. Like Teddy Roosevelt, Trump is using the megaphone of his bully pulpit to get results.

He rescued 1,000 jobs by dangling tax incentives and the threat of retaliatory tariffs to convince air conditioning company Carrier not to move production from Indiana to Mexico. Democrats quibble over the number of jobs saved, but there’s no escaping the symbolism: Trump is on the side of workers, not big corporations.

Now there’s talk of a Trump effect, as more companies fearful of Trump’s “big stick” think twice about outsourcing American jobs.

Bill Ford, the chairman at Ford Motor Co., called Trump after the election to say the automaker changed its mind about moving some vehicle production offshore. Trump also said he lobbied Apple CEO Tim Cook about bringing manufacturing back to the United States.

“One of the things that will be a real achievement for me is when I get Apple to build a big plant in the United States, or many big plants in the United States, where instead of going to China, and going to Vietnam, and going to the places that you go to, you’re making your product right here,” Trump said he told Cook, according to a post-election interview with The New York Times.

Trump’s preinaugural swagger goes beyond the jobs front.

After Trump complained about the price tag for building the next Air Force One, the CEO of Boeing promised to limit costs. Trump put health care companies on notice that he wants drug prices, a major factor in exploding Medicare costs, to come down. His targeting of “out of control” overruns in the construction of F-35 fighter jets suggests defense contractors will feel the lash.

Trump may not get everything he wants, but if the transition is any indication, he seems to understand what his opponents do not. His success will hinge on jobs and bringing change to Washington, not how often he meets with intelligence briefers.

Og han ser ud til at få europæerne til at tage mere ansvar for eget forsvar. Den store kæp er mere end blot en sjofel reference til et af primærvalgenes lavpandede disputter, det er sikkerhedspolitik på det mest basale plan.

Derfor var hans nonchalante omtale af atomvåben under valgkampen også god sikkerhedspolitik og som skabt til en tid, hvor Verden ikke længere hviler nogenlunde trygt i at USA er den store hegemon. Ja, han var villig til at bruge atomvåben, hvis det lignede en god løsning - hvad ellers havde man dem for? Chokeret prøvede journalisten at finde en undtagelse i Trumps vanvid og spurgte om han også ville bruge atomvåben mod problemer i Europa

“Europe is a big place!” konstaterede Trump uden omsorg for pæne menneskers blodtryk og ængstelser - han talte heller ikke til dem.
Oliver og Obama, med sin fejlslagne (jeg lader tvivlen komme ham til gode) politik, kan gøre sig lystige alt det de vil. De er ikke relevante, de tabte valget og Trump bruger ikke deres medier til at tale med sine tilhængere. Trump talte til alle despoter og røvhuller ude den store verden, der har lært at grine ad Obamas svaghed og USA fald fra tronen. trump fortalte at når han kommer til, så har han allerede mandat i det amerikanske folk til at slå på gummen hvor han finder det for godt.
Det vidner om stor politisk indsigt at føre stormagtspolitik allerede inden man er valgt. Hillary gjorde det modsatte. Hun pustede sig op overfor vælgerne, mens hun legede med tanken om at gå i krig med Rusland.

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