En kommende jordskredssejr?
De fleste medier, både i USA og herhjemme, er ikke i tvivl om at Hillary Clinton fører over Donald Trump i meningsmålingerne. En skribent på Point Of View International, skrev om Trumps chancer, at “Donald Trump har aldrig kunnet vinde den her valgkamp” (…) “og jo mere han kæftede op, jo mere ville midtervælgerne få øjnene op for, at han var upræsidentiel og umulig at vælge”. Begrundelsen var at Trump var racist og sexist og kun havde støtte grundet “fornuftens og faktualitetens åbenbare bortgang” til fordel for Trump-tilhængernes “mavefornemmelser”.
Men der er også nogle, der holder fast i at Trump ikke blot stadig har en chance, men rent faktisk har et lille forspring. På Investor’s Business Daily, ligger Trump side om side i meningsmålingerne, Rasmussen har en lille føring til Trump og en professor Helmuth Norpoth har skabt sin egen model, der har forudset de seneste fem presidenter i streg, skriver Fox News. Norpoths model består at to del modeller, hvor den ene model vægter, hvor godt kandidaten klarede sig internt i eget parti, jo større sejr som partiets kandidat, jo bedre chancer som præsident. Den anden del er en konstatering af at amerikanerne sjældent gider det samme parti på præsidentposten mere end 8 år.
Men hvorfor ser det ud til at meningsmålinger ikke er fordelt over et mere eller mindre bredt spektrum, men snarere falder i to grupper, Den der taler om en lille fordel til Trump og og den der taler om noget nær en jordskredssejr til Clinton? Zero Hedge skriver
Earlier this morning we wrote about the obvious sampling bias in the latest ABC / Washington Post poll that showed a 12-point national advantage for Hillary. Like many of the recent polls from Reuters, ABC and The Washington Post, this latest poll included a 9-point sampling bias toward registered democrats.
“METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats - Republicans - Independents.”
Of course, while democrats may enjoy a slight registration advantage of a couple of points, it is nowhere near the 9 points reflected in this latest poll.
Meanwhile, we also pointed out that with huge variances in preference across demographics one can easily “rig” a poll by over indexing to one group vs. another. As a quick example, the ABC / WaPo poll found that Hillary enjoys a 79-point advantage over Trump with black voters. Therefore, even a small “oversample” of black voters of 5% could swing the overall poll by 3 full points. Moreover, the pollsters don’t provide data on the demographic mix of their polls which makes it impossible to “fact check” the bias…convenient.
Det er svært at gennemskue virkeligheden gennem medierne, når man ikke kan stole på medierne. Men hvis man ser på den begejstring de to kandidater kan mønstre blandt deres kernevælgere, er det tvivlsom om Hillary overhovedet har kernevælgere udenfor medierne og showbusiness
Hvis man skal tro professor Norpoths model ser Trump ud som en kommende sejrherre. Åh, blot som et aber dabei, så mener Young Conservatives at “Trump could wind up winning the election bigly”. Det bygger de ikke på nogen model af faktualitet, men mere fornuftigt på deres mavefornemmelser for amerikanske vælgere, når Demokraternes systematiske og professionelle mødeterror bliver en stadigt større historie.
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[...] Nogle meningsmålinger fra det amerikanske præsidentvalg viser en overlegen føring til Hillary Cli…. Skal man stole på de etablerede medier, der er et med det sidende politiske konsensus, eller skal man stole på de mange alternative medier, der er drevet af entusiasme og som er ganske nye? [...]
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