En kommende jordskredssejr?

De fleste medier, både i USA og herhjemme, er ikke i tvivl om at Hillary Clinton fører over Donald Trump i meningsmålingerne. En skribent på Point Of View International, skrev om Trumps chancer, at “Donald Trump har aldrig kunnet vinde den her valgkamp” (…) “og jo mere han kæftede op, jo mere ville midtervælgerne få øjnene op for, at han var upræsidentiel og umulig at vælge”. Begrundelsen var at Trump var racist og sexist og kun havde støtte grundet “fornuftens og faktualitetens åbenbare bortgang” til fordel for Trump-tilhængernes “mavefornemmelser”.

Men der er også nogle, der holder fast i at Trump ikke blot stadig har en chance, men rent faktisk har et lille forspring. På Investor’s Business Daily, ligger Trump side om side i meningsmålingerne, Rasmussen har en lille føring til Trump og en professor Helmuth Norpoth har skabt sin egen model, der har forudset de seneste fem presidenter i streg, skriver Fox News. Norpoths model består at to del modeller, hvor den ene model vægter, hvor godt kandidaten klarede sig internt i eget parti, jo større sejr som partiets kandidat, jo bedre chancer som præsident. Den anden del er en konstatering af at amerikanerne sjældent gider det samme parti på præsidentposten mere end 8 år.

Men hvorfor ser det ud til at meningsmålinger ikke er fordelt over et mere eller mindre bredt spektrum, men snarere falder i to grupper, Den der taler om en lille fordel til Trump og og den der taler om noget nær en jordskredssejr til Clinton? Zero Hedge skriver

Earlier this morning we wrote about the obvious sampling bias in the latest ABC / Washington Post poll that showed a 12-point national advantage for Hillary.  Like many of the recent polls from Reuters, ABC and The Washington Post, this latest poll included a 9-point sampling bias toward registered democrats.

“METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats - Republicans - Independents.”

Of course, while democrats may enjoy a slight registration advantage of a couple of points, it is nowhere near the 9 points reflected in this latest poll.

Meanwhile, we also pointed out that with huge variances in preference across demographics one can easily “rig” a poll by over indexing to one group vs. another.  As a quick example, the ABC / WaPo poll found that Hillary enjoys a 79-point advantage over Trump with black voters.  Therefore, even a small “oversample” of black voters of 5% could swing the overall poll by 3 full points.  Moreover, the pollsters don’t provide data on the demographic mix of their polls which makes it impossible to “fact check” the bias…convenient.

Det er svært at gennemskue virkeligheden gennem medierne, når man ikke kan stole på medierne. Men hvis man ser på den begejstring de to kandidater kan mønstre blandt deres kernevælgere, er det tvivlsom om Hillary overhovedet har kernevælgere udenfor medierne og showbusiness

Hvis man skal tro professor Norpoths model ser Trump ud som en kommende sejrherre. Åh, blot som et aber dabei, så mener Young Conservatives at “Trump could wind up winning the election bigly”. Det bygger de ikke på nogen model af faktualitet, men mere fornuftigt på deres mavefornemmelser for amerikanske vælgere, når Demokraternes systematiske og professionelle mødeterror bliver en stadigt større historie.

trump-okeefe-tweet

3 Kommentarer »

  1. [...] herfra, hvor du kan og bør læse hele [...]

  2. Mørke tider.

    Comment by Henrik True — October 25, 2016 @ 4:31 pm
  3. [...] Nogle meningsmålinger fra det amerikanske præsidentvalg viser en overlegen føring til Hillary Cli…. Skal man stole på de etablerede medier, der er et med det sidende politiske konsensus, eller skal man stole på de mange alternative medier, der er drevet af entusiasme og som er ganske nye? [...]

    Pingback by Monokultur » To alternative universer — October 26, 2016 @ 9:04 am

RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

Kommentér indlægget...

kreasimustika.com/aut-54629/ Therefore, myomectomy has been operating for patients, can not believe that fibroids have been cured since then can sit back and relax, but should be regularly reviewed, should generally be reviewed every three months to six months, a b-. pavlouestate.com/fon-57836/ Results: in the subgroup of patients with solitary uterine fibroids, 6 months after the embolization, the volume of uterine fibroids was reduced to 50% in 16 patients, and to 38% in 4 patients. About us our tools countries hosting ip addresses categories sitemap blogger wordpress joomla pligg e-mail rss twitter welcome to theme craft - themes and templates expert! Themecraft analyses every website out there for functionality and usability. Some leiomyomas have a high-signal-intensity rim on t2-weighted images, which represents a pseudocapsule of dilated lymphatic vessels, dilated veins, or edema (fig 10) (30). nhotservices.com.au/lap-52953/ safe take viagra after stroke Other hormone therapies drugs called gonadotropin-releasing hormone (gnrh) agonists may offer temporary symptom relief from fibroids by stopping periods and shrinking fibroids. http://greatgolfevents.com.au/fnw-55065/ hickey, m. An experimental study of embolic effect according to infusion rate and concentration of suspension in transarterial particulate embolization. disefi.com/uar-50385/ Some leiomyomas have a high-signal-intensity rim on t2-weighted images, which represents a pseudocapsule of dilated lymphatic vessels, dilated veins, or edema (fig 10) (30). 26. http://stgold.com/aspnet_client/system_web/4_0_30319/fount.php?mgb=50639 viagra buy bangalore 7 to 5% hysterectomy also can lead to long-term side effects: hormonal changes (if ovaries are removed), emotional changes and loss of sexual appetite. Find drug information easy-to-search resources on drugs in various stages of development and approval.
Monokultur kører på WordPress