Tyrkiet kommer nærmere sine strukturelle udfordringer

Demografi, Erdogan, Forår?, Multikultur, Muslimer, Politik, Tyrkiet, islam, Økonomi og finans — Drokles on July 16, 2016 at 9:17 pm

“Hvem var det, der vandt i dag, det var dem fra IS af!” skrev en god ven på Facebook. Erdogan tænkte måske det samme, i hvert fald udtalte han at det sørgelig forsøg på et kup var “en gave fra Allah”. Nogen konspirationsspekulerer i at det var en gave fra ham selv, som han har fået det til at handle om mere end nogle utilfredse officerer, der stod til at blive udrenset, med fyringen af 2700 dommere. Uanset hvad, skal nogle nok betale prisen, måske i form af likvideringer. Andre spekulerer i at Erdogans regime er blevet svækket grundet det ydmygende i hele miseren.

David P Goldman tegner i Asia Times et andet og mere dystert billede af Tyrkiets situation end den

Turkey faces a perfect storm of economic, political and foreign policy problems.

First, Turkey’s much-heralded economic growth spurt of the 2000’s has come to a grinding stop. The Erdogan boom, which inspired predictions that Turkey might emerge as another China, resembled the Asian experience less than it did the Latin American credidt bubbles of the 1980s or the American subprime bubble of the 2000s.

(…)

Secondly, Turkey’s internal cohesion is at risk due to the rapid increase of its Kurdish-speaking minority and the relative decline of the ethnic Turkish population.

The Kurdish demographic problem has led Erdogan into a political swamp from which he may not emerge. He won last year’s presidential election by stirring up national ardor against the Kurdish minority, and has kept the Kurdish southeast of the country in a low-level civil war since then. The leader of the Kurdish People’s Democratic Party warned last March that Erdogan had brought Turkey to the brink of an ethnic war.

To prevent the Syrian Kurds from controlling the northern border of their country and linking up with their Iraqi compatriots, Erdogan covertly supported Sunni terrorists, including ISIS, as Michael Rubin explained last March in Newsweek. Erdogan’s back channel to ISIS blew up in Turkey’s face–literally–when ISIS suicide bombers killed 42 people and injured hundreds at the Istanbul Airport June 29.

Since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire after World War I and the foundation of the modern state, Turkey’s army acted as the guarantor of the country’s secular state. The Islamist Erdogan attempted to reverse that, jailing hundreds of military officers on a spurious charge of plotting  a coup in 2012. Most were released in 2014. Erdogan could not do without the military, however; his failed foreign policy made him dependent on the Turkish army, which reasserted its influence this year. Erdogan proudly called himself a “black Turk,” that is, a devout Muslim from the Anatolian hinterland, in contrast to the “White Turks,” the Europeanized secular party who came to power under Kemal Ataturk and ruled the country until the 2000s.

Jeg har ingen forhåbninger til Tyrkiet som den sekulære løgn Atatürk på imponerende kreerede. Det er bedre at se sine fjender, som det de er.

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