Ironisk dissonans

Diverse, IPCC, Klima, Pressen, Videnskab, venstrefløjen — Drokles on March 27, 2014 at 4:53 pm

Nick Cohen har et herligt rablende indlæg i Guardian. Klimabenægterne, der beskrives som “cultish fanatics“, drevet af et af had til venstrefløjsere og sympati for markedskræfter har nemlig vundet kampen om klimaet stik mod al fornuft

The Royal Society, the Royal Institution, Nasa, the US National Academy of Sciences, the US Geological Survey, the IPCC and the national science bodies of 30 or so other countries have said that man-made climate change is on the march. A survey of 2,000 peer-reviewed papers on global warming published in the last 20 years found that 97% said that humans were causing it.

Der er med andre ord, “no scientific debate” om den snarlige katastrofe: “Man-made global warming and the man-made mass extinction of species define this hot, bloody and (let us hope) brief epoch in the world’s history“, ”The evidence for man-made global warming is as final as the evidence of Auschwitz.

Faktisk er der en debat helt inde i kernen af FNs konsensus, som man forleden kunne læse om i ellers så klima alarmistiske Economist. De 15-17 års manglende opvarmning af atmosfæren, der, uanfægtet af usikkerhed, er døbt “the Pause”, bortforklares ved antagelser om ekstra partikler i atmosfæren især fra øget vulkanaktivitet, lavere sol-aktivitet og at oceanerne diskret har optaget den ekstra varme fra atmosfæren. Et enestående sammenfald af omstændigher der tegner et falsk billede af normalitet. Som Economist formulerer det, så er ‘pausen’ gået fra at være uforklarlig til at være overforklaret

Der er heller ikke, som Cohen eller er overbevist om, den store frygt hos klimapanelet for at lidt bedre vejr vil føre til “mass extinction” - dyr og planter er sejere end som så.

Den officielle ‘pause’ var altså uforudset, der hersker uenighed om dens årsager, hvilket vil sige at der ikke eksisterer et nagelfast konsensus om klimaet og konsekvenserne af en global opvarmning er alligevel ikke problematiske. Alligevel mener Cohen at det er skeptikerne der lider af ‘kognitiv dissonans’…

…a condition first defined by Leon Festinger and his colleagues in the 1950s . They examined a cult that had attached itself to a Chicago housewife called Dorothy Martin. She convinced her followers to resign from their jobs and sell their possessions because a great flood was to engulf the earth on 21 December 1954. They would be the only survivors. Aliens in a flying saucer would swoop down and save the chosen few.

When 21 December came and went, and the Earth carried on as before, the group did not despair. Martin announced that the aliens had sent her a message saying that they had decided at the last minute not to flood the planet after all. Her followers believed her. They had given up so much for their faith that they would believe anything rather than admit their sacrifices had been pointless.

Og hvis det skulle forholde sig så ironisk, at det er Cohen selv, der lider af kognitiv dissonans, så ville det jo også forklare, hvorfor han heller ikke kan se det ironiske i at lancere en konspirationsteori, som forklaring på andres konspirationsteorier

Rightwing billionaires in the United States and the oil companies have spent fortunes on blocking action on climate change. A part of the answer may therefore be that conservative politicians in London, Washington and Canberra are doing their richest supporters’ bidding. There’s truth in the bribery hypothesis. In my own little world of journalism, I have seen rightwing hacks realise the financial potential of denial and turn from reasonable men and women into beetle-browed conspiracy theorists.

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