Tyfonjægerne

Diverse, IPCC, Klima, Pressen — Drokles on November 13, 2013 at 12:29 pm

justaintso

Spiked Online skriver om dommedagsprofeterne, der falder over hinanden i håbet om at næste uvejr vil indvarsle Jordens undergang.

Let’s hear it for science! The UK Met Office was issuing warnings days ago about a storm that would sweep across the Atlantic and hit the UK on Sunday and Monday. Before the storm even existed. But if the storm was a great piece of forecasting, you didn’t need a supercomputer to predict the reaction to the storm’s approach.

From the first inkling that the country was going to be hit by unusually strong winds and heavy rain, the nation’s panicmongers went into overdrive. There were days of repeated warnings about just how bad it was going to be - with lots of allusions to the ‘Great Storm’ of 1987 (itself only a ‘great storm’ in a country that doesn’t really do big storms). This week’s storm was christened ‘St Jude’ (the patron saint of lost causes) by a Weather Channel forecaster, and the name quickly became common currency. The UK prime minister, David Cameron, made great play of holding an ‘emergency meeting’ to make sure the country was ready. Train operators decided to institute blanket cancellations of services across the south of England. At every stage, we were told to ‘be prepared’.

The result, however, was by and large a damp squib.

Tyfonen ”Haiyan” var dog meget mere end a damp squib. Og dommedagsprofeterne kom da også ud i stort tal for at smede mens ligene endu var varme. Jyllands-Posten skrev f.eks under overskriften “En forsmag på fremtiden

Tyfonen ”Haiyan”, der har dræbt over 10.000 mennesker, fordrevet andre 478.000 fra deres hjem og berørt i alt 4,5 mio., kan være en forsmag på, hvad der er i vente i et varmere klima. Tyfonen er formentlig den kraftigste, der nogensinde er registreret, og ifølge klimaforskere tyder meget på, at det hænger sammen med den globale opvarmning.

»Der er ingen tvivl om, at dette er en konsekvens af, at det bliver varmere på kloden,« lyder det fra klimaforsker Sebastian Mernild fra Center for Scientific Studies i Valdivia i Chile.

Filipinernes klimakommisær, ja, der er sådan en alle vegne, erklærede at han vil sultestrejke “indtil et meningsfuldt mål er i sigte“, men kun så længe han var i Polen, hvor der lige nu er klimakonference.

For alle jer der stadig benægter, at klimaforandringer er virkelighed; Jeg udfordrer jer til at komme ned fra jeres gyldne tårn og væk fra lænestolens komfort,” lød det.

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God tur hjem og velbekomme. Noget mere nuanceret kunne man læse på Climate Central, der i overskriften “A hint of what’s to come?” trods alt satte et spørgsmålstegn ved hvad fremtiden byder.

…there is more consensus about the stormier future than there is about the present. The researchers also urged caution in attributing Haiyan’s strength to global warming, given the lack of evidence that manmade global warming has had any detectable influence on Western Pacific typhoons, let alone tropical cyclones in general (an umbrella term that includes typhoons and hurricanes).

Brian McNoldy, a a senior research associate at the University of Miami, told Climate Central that, “While Haiyan was absolutely amazing, it’s not alone. It’s in an elite company of a handful of other tropical cyclones scattered across the decades and across the world.”

McNoldy downplayed global warming’s role in helping to fuel Super Typhoon Haiyan, saying, “We don’t get to pick and choose which storms are enhanced by a warmer climate and which ones aren’t, so this was just as subject to this year’s climate as the numerous others that weren’t so impressive. Extremely intense tropical cyclones are rare, but have always been a part of nature — we don’t need to find an excuse for them.”

Gabe Vecchi, a research oceanographer with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), said that if global warming altered Haiyan, it did not do so to a significant extent. “I expect that the contribution of global warming to Haiyan’s extreme intensity is likely to have been small, relative to other factors like weather fluctuations and climate variability.”

Climate research has not yet provided a clear picture of how global warming is altering tropical cyclones around the world.

(…)

The most recent IPCC report said: “Globally, there is low confidence in attribution of changes in tropical cyclone activity to human influence.” The IPCC found that insufficient observational evidence, a lack of understanding regarding the physical connection between manmade climate change and tropical storms, and considerable disagreement between studies justified downplaying any detectable changes in tropical cyclones due to global warming.

Og grunden til at “ there is more consensus about the stormier future than there is about the present” er fordi der er et konsensus om at forlade sig på computermodeller. Virkelighedens observationer viser nemlig ikke at have synderlig sammenhæng mellem tyfoner og stigende gennemsnitstemperatur, som Bjørn Lomborg skrev på Facebook

Yet, even *after* Haiyan, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of all cyclones in the Western North Pacific is below normal (99%, http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php). The global ACE is at 74%.

As you can see in the graph below, both Northern Hemisphere ACE and global ACE are at the lowest since the 1970s.

Yes, there are ferocious cyclones in the world, as they always have been. But first, you can’t argue that global warming is making them worse, when the indicators are *lower*.

Second, claiming that CO? cuts is the way to tackle cyclone damages is simply immoral. Even if we cut emissions dramatically, it will have only little impact in 50-100 years. If you want to help places like Tacloban and the Philippines, it is all about adaptation.

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Og klima og vejr er to forskellige størrelser, som vi ofte bliver belært om. Den tyske meterolog fortæller ifølge No Tricks Zone

What’s climate change got to do with it?

As always: immediately after an event is observed on the planet that supposedly ’had never happened before’, a discussion about the cause breaks out. And once again the discussion turns to the term: ‘climate change’.

‘Haiyan was one of the most powerful typhoons ever observed’ – at first that sounds very suspenseful, but an important small piece of information gets left out, namely: ‘Since weather records started being kept’.  And when it comes to tropical storms, regular weather records have been kept only for a few decades! When we speak of the strongest storm of ‘all time’, this ‘all-time’ is not even 100 years long.

The earth is really already more than 100 years old, and we don’t know at all what natural catastrophes occurred 500 or 1000 years ago - and we also don’t know which tropical storms took place.

For many ‘climate expert’ this recent event is a feeding frenzy that allows them to pound the drums of ‘evil climate change’. And here not a single one of these ladies and gentlemen are able to show that such storms never existed over the past hundreds of years, let alone that this storm is connected to a man-made climate change.

What came out of the mouths of climate experts after the last cold winters had gripped Central Europe?:

‘A few colder-than-normal winters are in no way any indication of a trend change when it comes to climate change.’ Well, using that logic, how is a single large typhoon then supposed to confirm climate change? A truly fascinating thought process!

De mange dødsfald er desværre heller ingen nyhed og de skyldes som så ofte før at de berørte samfund ikke har haft ressourcerne til at beskytte sig imod naturens luner fortæller Washington Post

If this death toll estimate holds up, however, it wouldn’t even put Haiyan in the top 35 deadliest tropical cyclones on record.

The story behind the destructiveness of Haiyan rings true of most powerful cyclones that occur in this region of the world: 33 of the 35 deadliest tropical cyclones on record have occurred in southern or southeastern Asia – due to a confluence of meteorology, geography, population density, poverty and government.

In the case of Super Typhoon Haiyan, Tacloban city and its 220,000 inhabitants are located at the tip of a funnel-shaped bay in the Leyte Gulf. The center of Haiyan’s eye brushed just a few miles south of Tacloban, putting the city right in the strongest part of the storm’s right-front quadrant. This unfortunate location along Haiyan’s track led to Tacloban receiving the brunt of the storm’s Category 5-equivalent winds, destroying “up to 80%” of the city’s buildings.

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Så den filipinske klimakommisær burde måske hellere bruge sine ressourcer på at bygge sit land op så det bliver i stand til at tåle sin egen natur, frem for at sultestrejke.

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