Vinteren kommer

Diverse, IPCC, Klima, Pressen — Drokles on November 7, 2013 at 4:02 pm

Man kan ikke ligefrem kalde et nyt konsensus eller et paradigmeskift indenfor klimaforskning, men de stemmer, der taler for Solens afgørende indflydelse på temperaturen er blevet stærkere og flere. Og de giver ikke meget for den menneskeskabte globale opvarmning. Medierne taler stadig om at al isen kan smelte med en havspejlsstigning på imponerende 66 meter til følge og at klodens opvarmning vil gøre ubehagelige dyr som slanger store som busser, mens gode dyr som heste små som katte. Men tag roligt jeres hest på skødet, ingen kæmpeslange vil trække jer under dybet lidt nord for Næstved. Den globale opvarmning udvikler sig så langt fra de skrækhistorier, der sælger så mange aviser og vindmøller. Daily Mail skriver f.eks. at de 17 år, der er gået uden at den globale temperatur er steget kan meget vel vare indtil 2030′erne

A paper in the peer-reviewed journal Climate Dynamics – by Professor Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology and Dr Marcia Wyatt – amounts to a stunning challenge to climate science orthodoxy.

Not only does it explain the unexpected pause, it suggests that the scientific majority – whose views are represented by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – have underestimated the role of natural cycles and exaggerated that of greenhouse gases.

(…)

The pause means there has been no statistically significant increase in world average surface temperatures since the beginning of 1997, despite the models’ projection of a steeply rising trend.

According to Dr Hawkins, the divergence is now so great that the world’s climate is cooler than what the models collectively predicted with ‘five to 95 per cent certainty’.

Curry and Wyatt say they have identified a climatic ‘stadium wave’ – the phenomenon known in Britain as a Mexican wave,  in which the crowd at a stadium stand and sit so that a wave seems to circle the audience.

(…)

In similar fashion, a number of cycles in the temperature of air and oceans, and the level of Arctic ice, take place across the Northern hemisphere over decades. Curry and Wyatt say there is evidence of this going back at least 300 years.

According to Curry and Wyatt, the theory may explain both the warming pause and why the computer models did not forecast it.

It also means that a large proportion of the warming that did occur in the years before the pause was due not to greenhouse gas emissions, but to the same cyclical wave.

‘The stadium wave signal predicts that the current pause in global warming could extend into the 2030s,’ said Wyatt. This is in sharp contrast with the IPCC’s report, which predicts warming of between 0.3 and 0.7C by 2035.

Og BBC’s Paul Hudson interviewede Professor Mike Lockwood om en kommende Lille Istid (nok snarere Daltons minimum end Maunders)

Following analysis of the data, Professor Lockwood believes solar activity is now falling more rapidly than at any time in the last 10,000 years.

He found 24 different occasions in the last 10,000 years when the sun was in exactly the same state as it is now - and the present decline is faster than any of those 24.

Based on his findings he’s raised the risk of a new Maunder minimum from less than 10% just a few years ago to 25-30%.

And a repeat of the Dalton solar minimum which occurred in the early 1800s, which also had its fair share of cold winters and poor summers, is, according to him, ‘more likely than not’ to happen.

He believes that we are already beginning to see a change in our climate - witness the colder winters and poor summers of recent years - and that over the next few decades there could be a slide to a new Maunder minimum.

It’s worth stressing that not every winter would be severe; nor would every summer be poor. But harsh winters and unsettled summers would become more frequent.

Professor Lockwood doesn’t hold back in his description of the potential impacts such a scenario would have in the UK.

He says such a change to our climate could have profound implications for energy policy and our transport infrastructure.

Although the biggest impact of such solar driven change would be regional, like here in the UK and across Europe, there would be global implications too.

Og i Cern fortsætter Jasper Kirkby med sit CLOUD projekt, der empirisk skal eftervise danske Svensmarks teori om kosmisk strålings effekt på skydækket

Så hav vintertøjet parat, vinteren kommer, som de siger igen og igen og igen i Game of Thrones.

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