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Monokultur » Klimavidenskaben har stået i stampe i 30 år


Klimavidenskaben har stået i stampe i 30 år

IPCC, Klima, Videnskab — Drokles on October 10, 2013 at 4:29 pm

Grafen herunder, der er udarbejdet af den israelske astrofysiker Nir Shaviv og som han kalder den kedeligste nogensinde, viser udviklingen i FN’s klimapanels vurdering af klimaet’s følsomhed eller sensitivitet om man vil. Klimaet’s følsomhed er, som udtrykket sig, hvor stærkt det reagerer på en påvirkning. Har klimaet således en høj følsomhed, som klimapanelet antager, vil en lille ændring i f.eks. atmosfærens indhold af CO2 have stor betydning. Omvendt, har klimaet en lille følsomhed kan man sagtens udlede store mængder CO2 uden at det gør en synderlig forskel.

sensitivityvstime

Som man kan se på grafen, der går tilbage til før klimapanelet, til Charney rapporten’s glade dage i 1979, er der, bortset fra klimapanelets rapport fra 2007 (AR4) ikke sket en ændring af klimaforskningens konsensus om en gennemsnitlig temperaturstigning på mellem 1,5 og 4,5 grader, for hver gang CO2 indholdet i atmosfæren fordobles. Med alle de mia. af dollars man har hældt i klimaforskningen netop for at finde ud af klimaets følsomhed er man altså ikke nået et skridt videre efter mere end 30 års forskning.

One of the statements which wonderfully exemplifies the absurdity of the new report is this paragraph discussing the climate sensitivity in the summary for policy makers. They write:

“The equilibrium climate sensitivity quantifies the response of the climate system to constant radiative forcing on multi-century time scales. It is defined as the change in global mean surface temperature at equilibrium that is caused by a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Equilibrium climate sensitivity is likely in the range 1.5°C to 4.5°C (high confidence), extremely unlikely less than 1°C (high confidence), and very unlikely greater than 6°C (medium confidence) 16. The lower temperature limit of the assessed likely range is thus less than the 2°C in the AR4, but the upper limit is the same. This assessment reflects improved understanding, the extended temperature record in the atmosphere and ocean, and new estimates of radiative forcing.”

Now, have you noticed something strange? According to the AR4 report, the “likely equilibrium range of sensitivity” was 2.0 to 4.5°C per CO2 doubling. According to the newer AR5 report, it is 1.5 to 4.5°C, i.e., the likely equilibrium sensitivity is now known less accurately. But they write:  “This assessment reflects improved understanding”. How ridiculous can you be?

Shaviv leverer det indlysende svar for alle jer, der holder af Popper og Kuhn eller blot logik. Hvis en teori i udgangspunktet er forkert, vil flere data, mere empiri, ikke føre til en præcisering fordi teori og virkelighed ikke stemmer overens - tværtimod. Er teorien derimod rigtig, vil mere indsamling af data, mere ophobning af empiri, føre til en præcisering, da teorien vil afspejle virkeligheden.

2 Kommentarer »

  1. “Hvis en teori i udgangspunktet er forkert, vil flere data, mere empiri, ikke føre til en præcisering svaret fordi teori og virkelighed ikke stemmer overens - tværtimod. Er teorien derimod rigtig, vil mere indsamling af data, mere ophobning af empiri, føre til en præcisering, da teorien vil afspejle virkeligheden.”

    Det er et meget farligt statement det der, al den stund at klimalobbyen og andre af den nye verdensordens profeter formentlig snart vil hævde det modsatte, og vil forbyde sådanne farlige konspiratoriske ideer. Når sådanne ideer oven i købet ledsages af grafer, talmateriale og akademisk snak som kun kan tjene til at forvirre og afspore svage sjæle, så vil der formentlig være mulighed for alvorlige sigtelser for forstyrrelse af den eu-ffentlige orden.

    Comment by Balder — October 10, 2013 @ 5:31 pm
  2. Jamen jeg skammer faktisk også Balder. Lov mig at det bliver mellem os.

    Comment by Drokles — October 11, 2013 @ 6:36 pm

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