Intet klimakonsensus

Klima, Videnskab — Drokles on September 6, 2013 at 1:28 am

Man hører meget om enighed i klimadebatten, konsensus kalder man det med et ord lånt fra den politiske verden, hvor man forhandler sig til et mindeligt resultat. Som ved en finanslov - eller en samarbejdspolitik.

Dr Willie Soon, a distinguished solar physicist, quoted the late scientist-author Michael Crichton, who had said: “If it’s science, it isn’t consensus; if it’s consensus, it isn’t science.” He added: “There has been no global warming for almost 17 years. None of the ‘consensus’ computer models predicted that.”

Ja, konsensus er ikke et videnskabeligt ord og de der har taget det i deres mund har ikke vidst hvad videnskab er. Og mange har taget det i deres mund fra klimapampere tilknyttet FN, henover politikere til journalister. Og de har især været glade for at sætte et tal på, nemlig 97%. 97% konsensus om at verden snart vil drukne i kogende vand, 97% konsensus om at flere skatter og afgifter giver et bedre vejr, 97% konsensus om at mennesket kun kan reddes ved at afvikle det frie valg.  De 97% konsensus stammer fra en aldeles uvidenskabelig undersøgelse, hvis pinlighed kun overgås af følgagtigheden.

The new paper by the leading climatologist Dr David Legates and his colleagues, published in the respected Science and Education journal, now in its 21st year of publication, reveals that Cook had not considered whether scientists and their published papers had said climate change was “dangerous”.

The consensus Cook considered was the standard definition: that Man had caused most post-1950 warming. Even on this weaker definition the true consensus among published scientific papers is now demonstrated to be not 97.1%, as Cook had claimed, but only 0.3%.

Only 41 out of the 11,944 published climate papers Cook examined explicitly stated that Man caused most of the warming since 1950. Cook himself had flagged just 64 papers as explicitly supporting that consensus, but 23 of the 64 had not in fact supported it.

This shock result comes scant weeks before the United Nations’ climate panel, the IPCC, issues its fifth five-yearly climate assessment, claiming “95% confidence” in the imagined – and, as the new paper shows, imaginary – consensus.

Climate Consensus and ‘Misinformation’: a Rejoinder to ‘Agnotology, Scientific Consensus, and the Teaching and Learning of Climate Change’ decisively rejects suggestions by Cook and others that those who say few scientists explicitly support the supposedly near-unanimous climate consensus are misinforming and misleading the public.

Dr Legates said: “It is astonishing that any journal could have published a paper claiming a 97% climate consensus when on the authors’ own analysis the true consensus was well below 1%.

“It is still more astonishing that the IPCC should claim 95% certainty about the climate consensus when so small a fraction of published papers explicitly endorse the consensus as the IPCC defines it.”

The figures have indeed been cooked.

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