En mere reel game changer i Syrien

Antisemitisme, Arabiske forår, Israel, Jihad, USA, islam — Drokles on May 13, 2013 at 1:15 pm

Rapporter om at den syriske hær havde brugt giftgas (nervegassen sarin) i den syriske borgerkrig fik flere vestlige ledere inklusiv den amerikanske præsident Obama til at tale om en game changer, en afgørende udvikling, hvor vesten endelig ville engagere militært sig i det som den danske udenrigsminister Søvndal med ufrivillig præcision har kaldt “den syriske jungle“. Rapporter om, at de syriske oprørere muligvis også har brugt sarin, har givet de vestlige ledere en undskyldning for at tøve. Og vi glæder os da over denne timelige rysten på hånden. Og nu har Guardian en historie, som burde opløse ambivalensen om et engagement i Syrien

Syria’s main armed opposition group, the Free Syrian Army (FSA), is losing fighters and capabilities to Jabhat al-Nusra, an Islamist organisation with links to al-Qaida that is emerging as the best-equipped, financed and motivated force fighting Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Evidence of the growing strength of al-Nusra, gathered from Guardian interviews with FSA commanders across Syria, underlines the dilemma for the US, Britain and other governments as they ponder the question of arming anti-Assad rebels.

John Kerry, the US secretary of state, said that if negotiations went ahead between the Syrian government and the opposition – as the US and Russia proposed on Tuesday – “then hopefully [arming the Syrian rebels] would not be necessary”.

The agreement between Washington and Moscow creates a problem for the UK and France, which have proposed lifting or amending the EU arms embargo on Syria to help anti-Assad forces. The Foreign Office welcomed the agreement as a “potential step forward” but insisted: “Assad and his close associates have lost all legitimacy. They have no place in the future of Syria.” Opposition leaders were sceptical about prospects for talks if Assad remained in power.

Illustrating their plight, FSA commanders say that entire units have gone over to al-Nusra while others have lost a quarter or more of their strength to them recently.

“Fighters feel proud to join al-Nusra because that means power and influence,” said Abu Ahmed, a former teacher from Deir Hafer who now commands an FSA brigade in the countryside near Aleppo. “Al-Nusra fighters rarely withdraw for shortage of ammunition or fighters and they leave their target only after liberating it,” he added. “They compete to carry out martyrdom [suicide] operations.”

(…)

Ideology is another powerful factor. “Fighters are heading to al-Nusra because of its Islamic doctrine, sincerity, good funding and advanced weapons,” said Abu Islam of the FSA’s al-Tawhid brigade in Aleppo. “My colleague who was fighting with the FSA’s Ahrar Suriya asked me: ‘I’m fighting with Ahrar Suriya brigade, but I want to know if I get killed in a battle, am I going to be considered as a martyr or not?’ It did not take him long to quit FSA and join al-Nusra. He asked for a sniper rifle and got one immediately.”

Selvfølgelig vil eksistenser, som Mogens Lykketoft sikkert argumentere med at dette blot betyder at de islamistiske grupper bliver mere moderate og værdige til støtte. Der er dog udenlandsk engagement i Syrien ved Iran, der infiltrerer stadigt mere og Israel, der klogt bomber, hvad de anser som en trussel, hvilket mest er iranske missiler på ved til Hezbollah, skriver Michael Weiss for Now Media

The last few days have seen a grit-teeth conversation among Syrian dissidents about what to make of Israel objectively aiding their cause. They needn’t disturb their consciences overmuch because the IAF looks right past them and doesn’t even see Syria as an independent country anymore, only an emerging Iranian suzerainty in the Levant. Dr. Shimon Shapira, a retired brigadier general of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), has written a paper unambiguously titled “Iran’s Plans to Take Over Syria,” which emphasizes comments made by Mehdi Taaib, the head of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s think tank, that Syria is “35th district of Iran,” tantamount to Khuzestan, the Arab-populated district of Iran. The architect of this grand strategy is Major General Qasem Suleimani, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp-Quds Force, who, in an ambitious operation named for himself, has begun the training and financing of 150,000-strong sectarian militia in Syria known as Jaysh al Sha’bi, drawn from fighters from Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah, Iraq, and even the Gulf states. This Basiji-style irregular army, as well as older Syrian formations such as the minorities-staffed Popular Committees and the shabiha (both of which also receive the mullahs’ largesse), stand to inherit the responsibilities of the Syrian Army, and further Iranian interest, in the event of regime collapse.

Lest anyone think that these claims amount to Israel overstating its own security threat, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has put out a new study about the Persian bulwark keeping Assad alive which legitimates and expands on Shapira’s analysis. ISW also suggests that a major imperative for grounding Syrian aircraft or destroying the Air Force’s infrastructure is to halt to the uninterrupted supply-line of personnel and materiel from Tehran.

The report neatly lays out the history of proven Iranian involvement in Syria such as the assassination of IRGC-QF Brigadier General Hassan Shateri in the Damascus countryside in February 2013, and the prisoner swap deal brokered between the regime and the Free Syrian Army in January, which saw the release of high-ranking officials of the IRGC-Ground Forces including the current and former commanders of IRGC Shohada unit; the commander of 14th Imam Sadegh Brigade (Bushehr province); and members of the 33rd al-Mahdi Brigade (Fars province). All of these units have extensive experience in counterinsurgency tactics, as they deal with provinces of Iran used to tribal and ethnic unrest. As the ISW authors observe: “The forward deployment of high-ranking current commanders of IRGC Ground Forces units is unusual, as IRGC-QF is Iran’s traditional foreign military arm while IRGC-GF is responsible for internal security and conventional operations inside of Iran.”

Et er at bombe iranske missiler i Syrien, noget andet er at bombe i Iran, skriver Alin Salim for Gatestone Institute, for skal der bombes, er det der!

In north Yemen in 1967, Egypt’s Gamal Abdel Nasser sprayed poison gas on civilians; in Halabja in 1988, Iraq’s Saddam Hussein sprayed poison gas — including mustard gas and sarin — on his Kurds, and now Bashar Assad is pouring chemical weapons on his fellow Syrians.

The use of weapons of mass destruction by leaders in the Middle East against their own people is an indication of just how light the trigger finger is of many tribal leaders and religious fanatics running wild in that region. There exists in the Middle East a basic willingness to use WMD, whether chemical or nuclear, against civilians — with no hesitancy involved — and with full Islamic religious justification.

If the extremists in Iran, the Hezbollah or the mujahideen of the global jihad get their hands on nuclear or chemical weapons, the world will immediately become a very difference place. Unfortunately, a substantial proportion of the so-called “free Syrian army” is cast in the same radical Islamic mold as Al-Qaeda and the Al-Nusra Front. If the West provides the anti-Assad forces with advanced weaponry, or intervenes to collapse the Assad regime, it is entirely possible that fanatic Islamists will take control of Syria – the same scenario the Americans have already seen played out in Afghanistan and Egypt.

(…)

an American decision to provide the Syrian rebels with weapons is a gun the Americans would be using to shoot themselves in both feet. It is Iran that must be struck. If it is, the other players will get the message. Once Iran has been revealed as vulnerable, the arrogance of Hamas, Hezbollah, and even North Korea will wither. The leaders of the Middle East will lower their tone, say thank you nicely, and the sheriff will return to the conflicted Middle Eastern town stronger and more admired.

America does not even need to send troops on the ground, just exploit its air superiority to strike deep at the heart of Iran’s nuclear project and the rule of the Ayatollahs. There is nothing to fear from an Iranian military retaliation so long as Iran does not have an atomic bomb. Once it does, it will be too late.

Når israelerne ender med at bombe for civilisationens skyld vil de kun blive mødt med fordømmelse fra alle de europæiske lande, hvis sikkerhed de har reddet.

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