Klimaet er skiftet til en ny normal

Diverse — Drokles on April 8, 2013 at 9:41 am

De seneste par årtier har konsensus om klimaet været at vi har oplevet en global opvarmning uden fortilfælde (unprecedented). Beviserne har været ubetvivlelige (unequivocal) og uomtvistelige (incontrovertible). Men konsensus er et politisk ord der dækker over enighed ved kompromis og global opvarmning har derfor mest været en social konstruktion. Og den globale  opvarmning som social konstruktion er nu er ændret til en ny normal, et nyt konsensus om at klimaet måske nok ikke opvarmes i nævneværdig grad på grund af noget som vi driftige mennesker foretager os. Spiegel skriver

Blumen blühen früher, die Meerespegel steigen - kein Zweifel, das Klima hat sich verändert. Das letzte Jahr, so berichtet die Nasa, war das neuntwärmste seit Beginn der Messungen vor 132 Jahren. Das vergangene Jahrzehnt war sogar das wärmste in dieser Zeitspanne; der langfristige Trend zeigt also nach oben.

Doch längst hat sich herumgesprochen, dass sich das Klima zuletzt anders entwickelt hat als vorhergesagt: Seit 15 Jahren stockt die Erwärmung, der Aufwärtstrend der globalen Durchschnittstemperatur hat sich seit 1998 nicht fortgesetzt. “Der Stillstand hat zu der Annahme geführt, die globale Erwärmung habe aufgehört”, räumt die Nasa ein.

Das britische Met Office prognostiziert sogar neuerdings, dass sich die Temperaturpause auf hohem Niveau bis Ende 2017 fortsetzen könnte - trotz des rapide zunehmenden Ausstoßes von Treibhausgasen. Dann hätte die globale Erwärmung 20 Jahre pausiert. Wie viele Jahre, so lautet eine mittlerweile häufig gestellte Frage, müsste die Temperatur denn noch stocken, bis Klimaforscher ihre Prognosen einer künftigen Erwärmung überdenken?

Ja, det er tysk, men der står noget i retning af at temperaturen ikke er steget i 15 år. Spiegel delagtigør også deres undrende læsere i grunden til den udbredte men fejlagtige opfattelse af at klimaet forandrer sig, nemlig de mange klimamodeller, der i overdreven tiltro til egne evner regner af sporet på basis af en fejlagtig teori.

Das Stocken der Erwärmung in den vergangenen Jahren bleibt zwar rätselhaft. Über zwei Jahrzehnte gesehen jedoch habe die Temperatur ziemlich exakt jenen Sprung gemacht, den Simulationen im Jahr 1999 vorhergesehen hätten, schreiben Myles Allen von der Oxford University und seine Kollegen. Die globale Durchschnittstemperatur der vergangenen zehn Jahre liege ein Viertelgrad über der durchschnittlichen Temperatur zwischen 1986 bis 1996. Solch ein Anstieg war in einer Prognose 1999 erwartet worden, berichten die Forscher. Die Erwärmung stockt nun zwar - aber eben auf vergleichsweise hohem Niveau.

Die Studie scheint geeignet, das Vertrauen in Klimamodelle zu stärken, meinen die Klimatologen. Auch wenn kurzfristiges Auf-und-Ab nicht vorhergesagt werden könnte, scheinen längerfristige Trends gut dargestellt zu werden.

Allerdings bleibt die Frage, für welche Klimamodelle der Erfolg zutrifft: Allens Prognose von 1999 zeigte einen moderaten Temperaturanstieg, drastischere Szenarien hingegen sind bislang nicht eingetroffen. Deshalb hegen manche Forscher nun die Hoffnung, allzu pessimistische Klimaprognosen könnten falsch sein.

Lennart Bengtsson gilt als zurückhaltender Klimaforscher. Nun aber wendet sich der ehemalige Direktor des Max-Planck-Instituts für Meteorologie mit einem aufrüttelnden Aufsatz an die Öffentlichkeit, in dem er auf erhebliche Wissenslücken und unerklärliche Klimaentwicklungen hinweist.

Im Blog Die Klimazwiebel diagnostiziert er angesichts der Zunahme des CO2-Treibhauseffektes um 80 Prozent seit dem Ende des 19. Jahrhundert “einen sehr gemäßigten Anstieg” der globalen Temperatur. Ebenso verblüffend sei, dass sich ausgerechnet die tropische Luft seit Beginn der Satellitenmessungen 1979 kaum erwärmt habe. Dabei sagen Klimaprognosen für die Region den stärksten Temperaturanstieg vorher - gewaltige Mengen Wasserdampf sollten den Treibhauseffekt dort eigentlich verstärken. “Es gibt keine einfache Erklärung dafür, außer dass der Planet sich der Hitze effektiver entledigen kann, als von den Modellen erwartet wird”, schreibt Bengtsson.

Möglich sei, dass Wolkenbildung die Erwärmung stärker bremse als erwartet. Es könnte auch sein, dass der verstärkte Treibhauseffekt überbewertet werde, weil nicht so viel Wasserdampf in die Luft gelange, wie angenommen wurde. Womöglich lande ein Gutteil der Wärmeenergie aber auch in der Tiefsee. “Wie auch immer”, resümiert der emeritierte Klimaforscher, “die globale Erwärmung schreitet deutlich langsamer voran als erwartet.” Es gebe folglich Hoffnung, dass der Klimawandel weniger dramatisch verlaufe als vermutet.

The Economist, som ellers har dyrket den globale opvarmning nidkært demonstrerer ligeledes en gryende nuancering

Temperatures fluctuate over short periods, but this lack of new warming is a surprise. Ed Hawkins, of the University of Reading, in Britain, points out that surface temperatures since 2005 are already at the low end of the range of projections derived from 20 climate models (see chart 1). If they remain flat, they will fall outside the models’ range within a few years.

The mismatch between rising greenhouse-gas emissions and not-rising temperatures is among the biggest puzzles in climate science just now. It does not mean global warming is a delusion. Flat though they are, temperatures in the first decade of the 21st century remain almost 1°C above their level in the first decade of the 20th. But the puzzle does need explaining.

The mismatch might mean that—for some unexplained reason—there has been a temporary lag between more carbon dioxide and higher temperatures in 2000-10. Or it might be that the 1990s, when temperatures were rising fast, was the anomalous period. Or, as an increasing body of research is suggesting, it may be that the climate is responding to higher concentrations of carbon dioxide in ways that had not been properly understood before. This possibility, if true, could have profound significance both for climate science and for environmental and social policy.

For Power Line’s Steven Hayward er der tale om et slutspil

The problem for the climateers is increasingly dire.  As The Economist shows in its first chart (Figure 1 here), the recent temperature record is now falling distinctly to the very low end of its predicted range and may soon fall out of it, which means the models are wrong, or, at the very least, that there’s something going on that supposedly “settled” science hasn’t been able to settle.  Equally problematic for the theory, one place where the warmth might be hiding—the oceans—is not cooperating with the story line.  Recent data show that ocean warming has noticeably slowed, too, as shown in Figure 2 here.

While climateers continue to beat the drum that each year is among the hottest since Satan opened his first furnace at Hades Hostel for Hapless Heathens, there has been an embarrassed silence, if not outright denial (heh), that temperatures have flattened out over the last 15 years.  Now even the leading climateers can’t maintain a straight face over this any more, as The Economist notes in its lede:

Ed Rodgers har også læst The Economist og aner det nye lys på vegne af Washington Post’s læsere i sin konstatering af at

…the globe is not getting warmer — or at least, it hasn’t in the last 15 years. As the March 30 print edition of The Economist reported, “Over the past 15 years air temperatures at the Earth’s surface have been flat while greenhouse-gas emissions have continued to soar.”

Fakta er fakta og nu er fakta ikke længere et uartigt ord. Faktum er, at den globale temperatur ikke er steget i 15 år (17, hvis man spørger jernbaneentusiasten og lummergøjen Rajendra Panchauri, formand for FN’s klimapanel), stik mod, hvad vi ellers har fået at vide. Det ene faktum vil trække det andet med sig og gamle stridigheder vil blive set i et nyt lys. Climategate f.eks. Hvad var det egentlig klimapanelets mest centrale forskere talte om internt? Hvilken viden sad de inde med, hvilke data ville de ikke dele med offentligheden, ja så endda hellere slette dem! Hvorledes lagde de pres på genstridige redaktører, forskere og debatørere? Og hvorledes kunne de blive hvidvasket i de efterfølgende høringer? Og hvorfor består 1/3 af klimapanelets digre rapporter af grå litteratur (ikke peer-reviewed). Og hvor meget har klimacirkusset kostet? Hvorledes kunne det ske, hvem er ansvarlige - og skal der være et juridisk efterspil? Det får vente lidt endnu, men ikke så længe.

Indtil videre er erkendelsen af at FN’s klimapanel blot har taget spekltakulært fejl ved at indfinde sig og det også hos Telegraphs ellers klimapeltro Geoffrey Lean der  stille har forladt det gamle konsensus og tilsluttet sig det nye.

All right, I accept that this Arctic April may seem an incongruous time to address global warming. But there are important, and possibly hopeful, developments in the complex, contentious world of climate science that might finally give us all a sense of spring. For some recent research suggests that climate change might not be as catastrophic as the gloomiest predictions suggest.

The research, moreover, comes at a time when many experts are beginning to despair that warming can be prevented from running out of control. Six weeks ago, for example, Prof Sir Robert Watson – the deeply respected former chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – said he believed the world had now missed its chance to keep the average rise in global temperature to less than 2C – the level at which dangerous effects are thought inevitable. But if the new research is right, it might be held below this ominous threshold after all, if determined worldwide action is taken.

Prediction, as they say, is tough, especially when it’s about the future – and that’s especially true when it comes to the climate, whose complexity we only partially understand. It is, as we all know, naturally immensely variable. And the effect of human intervention is subject to long timelags: it will be decades, even centuries, before the full consequences of today’s emissions of carbon dioxide become clear.

Skoen er virkeligt i den anden hånd, hvor bukserne ligger begravet. Rich Lowry vil have sproget brugt rigtigt i New York Post

There are few things sadder than the “climate denier.” He ignores the data and neglects the latest science. His rhetoric and policy proposals are dangerously disconnected from reality. He can’t recalibrate to take account of the latest evidence because, well, he’s a denier.

The new climate deniers are the liberals who, despite their obsession with climate change, have managed to miss the biggest story in climate science, which is that there hasn’t been any global warming for about a decade and a half.

“Over the past 15 years air temperatures at the Earth’s surface have been flat while greenhouse-gas emissions have continued to soar,” The Economist magazine writes. “The world added roughly 100 billion tons of carbon to the atmosphere between 2000 and 2010. That is about a quarter of all the CO2 put there by humanity since 1750.” Yet, no more warming.

Forbes‘ Harry Biswanger havde set frem til global opvarmning så han slap for vintrene i sit elskede New York, som han er for doven til at forlade for lidt godt vejr

So where’s the warming? Where are the gondolas pulling up to the Capitol? Where are the encroaching seas in Florida? Or anywhere? Where is the climate change which, for 33 years, has been just around the corner?

A generation and a half into climate change, née global warming, you can’t point to a single place on earth where the weather is noticeably different from what it was in 1979. Or 1879, for that matter. I don’t know what subliminal changes would be detected by precise instruments, but in terms of the human experience of climate, Boston is still Boston, Cairo is still Cairo, and Sydney is still Sydney.

Ja, hvor er den globale opvarmning? Kevin Trentberth forsøger at give et svar ved at redefinere global opvarmning til at betyde alt andet end temperatur, som han forklarer WKZO

Global warming is continuing but it’s being manifested in somewhat different ways,” said Kevin Trenberth, of the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research. Warming can go, for instance, to the air, water, land or to melting ice and snow.

Warmth is spreading to ever deeper ocean levels, he said, adding that pauses in surface warming could last 15-20 years.

Trentberth’s desperate forsøg på at redde æren lidt i land via lidt videnskabsbavl er en dødssejler. Hvis ikke vi kan erfare den globale temperaturstigning er den hensat til et rent akademisk studie for hele debatten har kun, ene og alene, eksklusivt og solitært handlet om katastrofale konsekvenser. Det har aldrig været en debat som en akademisk fornøjelse. Som Biswanger skriver

…I’ve grown old waiting for the promised global warming. I was 35 when predictions of a looming ice age were supplanted by warmmongering. Now I’m 68, and there’s still no sign of warmer weather. It’s enough to make one doubt the “settled science” of the government-funded doom-sayers.

Det er slutspillet, der er startet (sælg jeres Vestas aktier!).

8 Kommentarer »

  1. Kan du ikke lige bloggen denne TED Talk? Den er meget vigtig - 22 minutter: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vpTHi7O66pI

    Comment by Universalgeni — April 9, 2013 @ 7:01 pm
  2. Jeg har faktisk set den før og foretog dengang noget research. En mand der har stået bag drab på 40.000 elefanter skal man altid vare sig for. Og det viser sig at der tilsyneladende ikke er megen substans i hans projekter og hans dokumentation.

    Comment by Drokles — April 10, 2013 @ 1:15 pm
  3. Jeg har faktisk set den før og foretog dengang noget research. En mand der har stået bag drab på 40.000 elefanter skal man altid vare sig for. Og det viser sig at der tilsyneladende ikke er megen substans i hans projekter og hans dokumentation.

    Comment by Drokles — April 10, 2013 @ 1:15 pm
  4. Det burde ellers betyde meget, at han er nået frem til TED. De tjekker deres forelæsere og deres forskning meget grundigt. Men jeg hører hvad du siger. Ligger du stadig inde med referencer eller link til kritikken? Jeg vil gerne vide mere. :-)

    Comment by Universalgeni — April 10, 2013 @ 7:49 pm
  5. Her er englændernes Prince Charles med ros til Savory: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsmhTACrfOk

    Comment by Universalgeni — April 10, 2013 @ 11:27 pm
  6. Savory diskuteres på 180Grader, men der mange strækninger af Savorys teorier, som det er værd at undersøge, synes jeg. Prins Charles’ støtte overraskede mig. Manden plejer at være højrød. Men jeg tror nu ikke, debatten på 180Grader fører til noget. :-)

    http://www.180grader.dk/Videnskab/allan-savory-i-ted-talk-plankonomer-skaber-rken

    Comment by Universalgeni — April 11, 2013 @ 4:35 pm
  7. Der er lidt kritik her.

    http://www.123helpme.com/view.asp?id=26965

    Jeg bruger ikke så lang tid på det, det er et rent indre økologisk anliggende. Savory slår mig som en fantast, der snart har den ene eneste løsning på et katastrofalt problem, snart den anden eneste løsning. Meget af, hvad vi præsenteres for er anekdotisk eller blot tvivlsomt. Men jeg er heller ingen ekspert, hvad forstår bønder sig på agurkesalat?

    Comment by Drokles — April 11, 2013 @ 7:07 pm
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