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By: Drokles http://monokultur.dk/?p=6644&cpage=1#comment-59143 Drokles Mon, 18 Jul 2011 20:19:53 +0000 http://monokultur.dk/?p=6644#comment-59143 Ja der er en intens debat om det og det afhænger af, hvor man lægger snittet og hvad man tillægger det. Forrige år kom professor Phil Jones i fedtefaddet de nogle lækkede emails fra mellem ham og nogle kollegaer så ud til at beskrive et miljø af kammerateri og manipulation. Jones, som hans kollegaer var hovedforfattere til FNs Klimarapporter, men mere end det, de forsynede FN med den officielle måling globale temperatur både her og nu og hvorledes den har været de seneste 150 år, hvor man mener at have tilstrækkelig mange termometre rundt omkring på Jorden til at sige noget meningsfuldt. Phil Jones erikke ligefrem en klimaskeptiker, snarere firmaets mand. Her svarer han på spørgsmål for <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8511670.stm" rel="nofollow">BBC</a> <blockquote>A - Do you agree that according to the global temperature record used by the IPCC, the rates of global warming from 1860-1880, 1910-1940 and 1975-1998 were identical? An initial point to make is that in the responses to these questions I've assumed that when you talk about the global temperature record, you mean the record that combines the estimates from land regions with those from the marine regions of the world. CRU produces the land component, with the Met Office Hadley Centre producing the marine component. Temperature data for the period 1860-1880 are more uncertain, because of sparser coverage, than for later periods in the 20th Century. The 1860-1880 period is also only 21 years in length. As for the two periods 1910-40 and 1975-1998 the warming rates are not statistically significantly different (see numbers below). I have also included the trend over the period 1975 to 2009, which has a very similar trend to the period 1975-1998. So, in answer to the question, the warming rates for all 4 periods are similar and not statistically significantly different from each other. Here are the trends and significances for each period: Period Length Trend (Degrees C per decade) Significance 1860-1880 21 0.163 Yes 1910-1940 31 0.15 Yes 1975-1998 24 0.166 Yes 1975-2009 35 0.161 Yes B - Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods. </blockquote> En, der dog er skeptisk er den amerikanske Roy Spencer, der henter sine temperaturmålinger fra satelitter. http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_June_2011.gif Omkring 1998 var der en kraftig El Nino, ændrede havstrømme, der fører varmt vand op til overfladen, som trækker kurven ud af sin ellers bløde udvikling. Ja der er en intens debat om det og det afhænger af, hvor man lægger snittet og hvad man tillægger det. Forrige år kom professor Phil Jones i fedtefaddet de nogle lækkede emails fra mellem ham og nogle kollegaer så ud til at beskrive et miljø af kammerateri og manipulation. Jones, som hans kollegaer var hovedforfattere til FNs Klimarapporter, men mere end det, de forsynede FN med den officielle måling globale temperatur både her og nu og hvorledes den har været de seneste 150 år, hvor man mener at have tilstrækkelig mange termometre rundt omkring på Jorden til at sige noget meningsfuldt. Phil Jones erikke ligefrem en klimaskeptiker, snarere firmaets mand. Her svarer han på spørgsmål for BBC

A - Do you agree that according to the global temperature record used by the IPCC, the rates of global warming from 1860-1880, 1910-1940 and 1975-1998 were identical?

An initial point to make is that in the responses to these questions I’ve assumed that when you talk about the global temperature record, you mean the record that combines the estimates from land regions with those from the marine regions of the world. CRU produces the land component, with the Met Office Hadley Centre producing the marine component.

Temperature data for the period 1860-1880 are more uncertain, because of sparser coverage, than for later periods in the 20th Century. The 1860-1880 period is also only 21 years in length. As for the two periods 1910-40 and 1975-1998 the warming rates are not statistically significantly different (see numbers below).

I have also included the trend over the period 1975 to 2009, which has a very similar trend to the period 1975-1998.

So, in answer to the question, the warming rates for all 4 periods are similar and not statistically significantly different from each other.

Here are the trends and significances for each period:
Period Length Trend
(Degrees C per decade) Significance
1860-1880 21 0.163 Yes
1910-1940 31 0.15 Yes
1975-1998 24 0.166 Yes
1975-2009 35 0.161 Yes

B - Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming

Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods.

En, der dog er skeptisk er den amerikanske Roy Spencer, der henter sine temperaturmålinger fra satelitter.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_June_2011.gif
Omkring 1998 var der en kraftig El Nino, ændrede havstrømme, der fører varmt vand op til overfladen, som trækker kurven ud af sin ellers bløde udvikling.

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By: Ciska http://monokultur.dk/?p=6644&cpage=1#comment-59142 Ciska Mon, 18 Jul 2011 19:29:11 +0000 http://monokultur.dk/?p=6644#comment-59142 Nu har jeg flere gange set dig påstå, at temperaturen ikke er steget i 15 år. Det er ellers det eneste, vi får at vide fra officiel side. Har du evt et link, som beviser at temperaturen ikke er steget. Nu har jeg flere gange set dig påstå, at temperaturen ikke er steget i 15 år. Det er ellers det eneste, vi får at vide fra officiel side. Har du evt et link, som beviser at temperaturen ikke er steget.

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